So, the Riyadh Agreement (RIP, Jeddah Agreement) between STC and Hadi gov still hasn't been signed but a ceremony is reportedly imminent and a draft of what is the near-final text has now been distributed widely. Some quick thoughts (#Thread).
Draft is made up of a series of cascading/staggered national / local political and security arrangements aimed at integrating STC/southern secessionist political and affiliated forces into national defence/security structures. In return, STC participates in UN-led consultations.
If successful, the agreement solves two short-term problems:
- It prevents a war-within-a-war between STC and Hadi government
- It provides more credibility to future government negotiating platform with the Huthis.
Great!
- It prevents a war-within-a-war between STC and Hadi government
- It provides more credibility to future government negotiating platform with the Huthis.
Great!
But... It also displays many of the hallmarks of past troubled political deals in Yemen. It puts a lid on a serious issue (GoY-STC divisions over future of south), and arguably kicks the can down the road. It is loosely worded, and open to interpretation....
... And sets an ambitious timeline for implementation (new government, new southern governors, new southern security / military structures, within 3 months) without substantive detail of how these things will happen. In particular, sequencing and benchmarking are absent.
👆This last point (sequencing/benchmarking) seems to be the final issue in getting the agreement signed. Are military / security restructuring and gov't formation separate processes, or does the former have to happen before the latter? Unclear.
Still no news either on who will be PM, interior or defence minister. Each likely to be an important predictor of success as is the committee formed to oversee implementation. Big test for Saudi Arabia, which is taking over as Coalition lead in the south and will manage process.
For STC deal allows them to pursue agenda (independence) at UN-led talksas internationally legitimised actor . For GoY, is a re-assertion of sovereignty. The two have a history of enmity and clashing agendas. A lot could go wrong. GoY/STC contacts expect it will be short-lived.
If successfully implemented the agreement could lead to A) UN-led negotiations building on ongoing KSA-Huthi talks or B) A fresh offensive on Huthi-held territory by consolidated, Saudi-overseen anti-Huthi bloc. Would hope the former, but suspect the latter just as likely.
There is a lot to play for, a lot of reasons to be cautiously hopeful and a lot of reasons to be worried about risks of collapse. The Saudis are now very much in the driving seat. Will be up to them to fit the jigsaw together.
