Does tightness of lockdown make any difference to the numbers of deaths in a country? Difficult to establish but here is a little evidence, from Imperial College London. Compare UK and Germany.
#lockdown #covid19 #covid19uk
@MacShuffle @InProportion2 @NickTriggle #Ridge
#lockdown #covid19 #covid19uk
@MacShuffle @InProportion2 @NickTriggle #Ridge
People should follow Government guidance. But does lockdown NECESSARILY reduce COVID19 death?
Probably, but excluding any long-term factors via economic damage and unemployment here are some things that could act in the wrong direction with lockdown 1/6
Probably, but excluding any long-term factors via economic damage and unemployment here are some things that could act in the wrong direction with lockdown 1/6
When lockdown hits there’s tremendous population shuffling, people travel across the country and in many cases internationally. Especially University students; mostly distributing from their high density campus environment and suddenly travelling to their homes around Europe 2/6
These students are themselves relatively safe since they are young, but they travel to their homes were their parents are (doh) older and often there are vulnerable people present too. 3/6
Viral load matters. If a peep spend all day around a factory or office complex, they may be exposed to several people, but contact with each may be minimal; lock’em up at home all day, sometimes in poor housing, and exposure to their family is gr8; viral loads c/d be higher 4/6
Higher viral loads do often make virus illnesses worse; the disease onset is faster and their is less time for even innate immunity to slow spread. Cytokines storms could be worse, hence prognoses worse 5/6.
So follow government covid19 advice #StayAtHome , but don’t be thinking that there’s a simple balance: economy vs health. Just because lockdown will wreck the economy does not necessarily mean it will help health. Government has some very touch calls to make from here 6/6
7/6
...and of course lockdown itself will cause at least some deaths. Fewer people visiting GPs, seeking help. People trying home remedies...
This may be a tiny percentage, but as we are constantly told; a small percentage of a very large number is still a large number.
...and of course lockdown itself will cause at least some deaths. Fewer people visiting GPs, seeking help. People trying home remedies...
This may be a tiny percentage, but as we are constantly told; a small percentage of a very large number is still a large number.
