Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #lebanon

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Thread:
Places to visit in #Lebanon. (Not in the South though) :$
Baatara Gorge waterfall - Tannourine. ImageImage
Our Lady of Lebanon – Harrissa ImageImage
Read 24 tweets
Today , 46 years ago on may 15th 1974 the Ma’alot massacre occurred during which 3 #Palestine’ian terrorists ( which are hailed as heroes by the Palestinians) murdered 27 Israelis including Arabs , Jews , children and elerdely
This is what happened : (long thread)
On the night between the 12th and 13th of May , 3 Palestinian terrorists ,armed with AK 47 and grenades, belonging to the DFLP managed to infiltrate #Israel from southern #Lebanon , they were noticed by some IDF patrols but managed to get away and hide in the Galilee mountains
On the morning of May 14th 1974 , the terrorists started moving towards Ma’alot, on their way they encountered a vehicle driven by a #Druze-Israeli from Hurfiesh that was bringing Christian Israeli-Arab women from the village of Fassuta home from work in Kiryat Ata ...
#Israel
Read 33 tweets
Beirut & Damascus are only 80km apart

They are in top 10 closest pair of capitals in the world

Yet

Modern histories of #Lebanon & #Syria couldn’t have been more different

What made both countries so different?

What does the future hold for each?
While multiple factors played a role into making #Syria & #Lebanon so different, 1860 is arguably the key starting point

The civil war that year led to an international intervention (led by #France ) that would continue to shape Lebanon’s character for decades to come
Ever since up to 12,000 European soldiers landed in Beirut in 1860, #Lebanon became the one place where Ottomans turned a relatively blind eye to Europeans starting missionary schools or opening more consuls. Many families from today’s #Syria were attracted to this Western pivot
Read 33 tweets
#BREAKING NEWS🚨🚨🚨🚨

#LEBANON #GERMANY #BEIRUT #HEZBOLLAH #BAN

Lebanon Appoints the German Ambassador Dr. Georg Birgelen @GermanEmbBeirut!!!

Just recently, German Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer (CSU) passed a so-called ban on Hezbollah.
Followers of the group are therefore no longer allowed to be active in Germany. The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has now invited Georg Birgelen, the German ambassador to Beirut, to a conversation.
The Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Chitti wanted "further clarifications" to the German decision, reported the state Lebanese news agency NNA. Accordingly,
Read 15 tweets
Sheep applauding today price controls are the ones who will shout tomorrow for not finding anything on supermarket shelves. I assume they know nothing about economics, so I will explain it in an easy way, then in the actual way.

#Lebanon #كلن_يعني_كلن

[sorry for the tone]
Supermarket X has 5 Coffee Mates on the shelve. Wannabe superhero Y forces X to lower the price of Coffee Mate. X sells the 5 at lower price, and to replace them, X can only buy 3. In 2 weeks, X sells the 3 and to replace them, X can only buy 1. X sells the 1 then closes forever.
The [easy] economic approach (1/3):

X wants to import Coffee Mates.
Y sets a below-market price for Coffee Mates.
X realizes that selling Coffee Mate isn't profitable.
X decides to stop importing Coffee Mates.
No more Coffee Mates on shelves.
Read 8 tweets
-Thread- for summary

#Germany #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Ban

On the day on which German interior minister Horst Seehofer issued a nationwide ban on the Hezbollah terrorist organization, the organizers of the annual "Al-Quds Day" in Berlin canceled their planned march for May 16.
In this degoutant anti-Semitic meeting of haters of Israel, mostly from the Islamist milieu, which every year in the middle of the capital publicly called for the annihilation of the Jewish state, supporters of the Lebanese God Warrior Party were always among the driving forces.
Only last year participants had been prohibited from showing Hezbollah flags and symbols. Before that, they had always visibly shaped the image of the demonstrations, even if the organizers kept silent about this on their website.
Read 29 tweets
1- I took a quick look at the agricultural sector section in the government recovery plan and had some general comments. Perhaps @MouhanedD @RizkCharbel @GhenaHariri @RitaJalkh @MalekRobert can have a thorough reading & discuss it
2-the strategy and the action plan are very broad with no concrete content.
a) the plan doesn’t consider the need to revisit the already existing trade agreement and negotiate more favorable terms to support exports.
3- b) The plan doesn’t mention how to deal with smuggling and dumping the Lebanese market with cheaper agricultural products from Syria and other countries
c) "reaping the benefits of legalization of cannabis", music to my ears but how exactly are u going to do that? 🤷‍♀️
Read 11 tweets
Retail prices in #Lebanon

Benzene per liter is LBP 1200 (80 cents)
Diesel (mazot) is LBP 900 (60 cents)

Retail prices in #Syria

Benzene per liter is SYP 500 for (38 cents)
Diesel (mazot) is SYP 400 (30 cents)

Incentives to smuggle finished product is in one direction

=>
Since 2016, #Syria Government gets around 120k barrels of oil from the Kurds in the North. This gets refined. 40k barrels are kept for domestic Govt-controlled areas while the rest gets returned to the the Kurds. This arrangement has been in place since 2016
Given its natural gas field in Shaer & other places, #Syria relied on natural gas rather than fuel to power its power plants. Following takeover of ISIS of those fields, it has become nearly extremely difficult to continue to use natural gas (ISIS destroyed them before leaving)
Read 8 tweets
"The sooner #China was included into the international community, the earlier it would learn to play along with international norms, the argument went. But, China’s current measures indicate otherwise. International norms are the ones being played." thediplomat.com/2020/04/how-ch…
"China’s attempts to make the @UN a tool for achieving its hegemonic ambition would erode the institution’s trustworthiness from within and render international cooperation parochial."
"China’s approach to international cooperation would defeat the UN’s purpose to settle distributional conflicts since, very soon, other stakeholders would realize that cooperation is a cloak for advancing China’s national interests."
Read 24 tweets
#BREAKING
April 29—Sidon, #Lebanon
Locals protesting government corruption, poverty & unemployment, and the destructive influence of #Iran-backed groups, e.g. Hezbollah.
April 29—Sidon, #Lebanon
Clashes between protesters & security forces reported.
Government units firing live ammunition & tear gas.

Other reports indicate protesters also heading towards the residence of Prime Minister Hesan Diab, who has close ties with #Iran-backed Hezbollah.
April 29—Beirut, #Lebanon
Similar protests against government corruption, poverty & unemployment, and #Iran's malign influence through Hezbollah.
Read 4 tweets
Thread:

Salameh put up an hour-long speech defending his record and implicitly reminding the Govt that

#Lebanon ‘s laws stipulate that he can only be removed from office if medically incapacitated or is proven to have committed illegal acts

2- Let’s start first with his comment on financing excessive imports that many assumed it to mean #Syria

Prior to 2010, Syria’s Mazot & other petroleum products were so subsidized that they sold domestically at less than a third of the prices in #Lebanon or #Turkey =>
3-With Stable SYP & heavily subsidized domestic petroleum prices, merchants & smugglers used the huge difference in pricing to move the oil & mazot from #Syria to #Lebanon. This went on for decades and was prime reason for finally reducing the subsidy just before the war started
Read 15 tweets
April 28—Tripoli, #Lebanon
Locals set fire to a bank, protesting poor economic/political conditions. Opposition groups say Hezbollah-led government is attempting to take control over the Central Bank.

Many are accusing #Iran-backed Hezbollah of corruption.
April 28—Tripoli, #Lebanon
Scenes of intense clashes on the third day of unrest as locals protest poor economic/political conditions & #Iran's malign influence in their country through Hezbollah.
April 28—#Lebanon
People are continuing their protests against government protection, poverty, unemployment and the destructive influence of #Iran-backed groups, especially Hezbollah.

"Hezbollah=Terrorist"
Read 3 tweets
Unpopular Opinion Thread. 1 like - 1 take
Bartenders only care that you tip them and not start fights. Save your stories for friends
Boomers are better. They show up to meetings, pay on time, keep reservations, follow through, and are whiter. Can’t get that from any other generation.
Read 76 tweets
Food for thought
When it comes to the debt restructuring there are 2 extremes:
-allocating the losses only to shareholders and depositors (bold/tough/unfair to some depositors)
-“nationalizing the losses” by either pushing the Lira into a free fall (machiavellian).. 1/6 #Lebanon
..or allocating all the losses to the state (discriminatory to unbanked citizens and future generations).

The debate should focus on an in-between solution that would allocate the identified $83b losses to banks’ shareholders, depositors and the state. 2/6
In simple terms the distribution could be:
-$23B to shareholders that wipes out their participation in the banks
-$30B to depositors representing the estimated interest paid to them from 2016 until 2019 3/6
Read 11 tweets
#LEBANON HIRES KPMG, KROLL, OLIVER WYMAN FOR CENTRAL BANK AUDIT

KPMG = Auditing

Kroll = Investigative

Oliver Wyman = Mgt Consulting

@Hassan_B_Diab was not kidding when he warned @BDL_Lebanon

Countdown started
That financially strapped #Lebanon would decide to hire such an expensive global and credible team of auditors and forensic investigators and consultants is remarkable

It goes to show the seriousness & determination of @Hassan_B_Diab ‘s Govt as it tackles this crisis ==>
@Hassan_B_Diab & #Lebanon ‘s Govt has been frustrated for being blamed for the financial crisis

Talk has recently surfaced that @saadhariri might come back on a white horse & as a savior w backing of IMF

While this talk was never credible, LBP weakness put Govt under pressure
Read 8 tweets
Instead of opting for full Dollarization of economy, the government of #Lebanon is choosing full Lirafication. Lirafication is how Sulta will control us through hunger. I'll explain it in the following thread.

#كلن_يعني_كلن
Full Dollarization: wipe out LBP entirely from the economy and replace it with USD, or real money that cannot be printed. Ecuador in 2000.

Full Lirafication: wipe out USD from the economy and replace with it LBP, or monopoly money that can be infinitely printed. Venezuela.
We first have to agree that the real value of the USD is the one of the (black) market, not any value artificially set by a central bank. Not 1507 LBP/USD, nor 2600 LBP/USD.

We also have to agree that Banque du Liban (BdL) can indefinitely print LBP but can't print a single USD.
Read 23 tweets
Why are supermarket prices in #Lebanon so high? I'll explain with the following model.
Any big supermarket needs a loan to bring products to shelves. Loans are in USD.
Today, A, owner of SuperMarket, decides to buy 10 chickpea bags from the Lebanese producer, priced at 1,500LL each, or 1$. So A takes a 10$ bank loan, changes them to 15,000LL and buys the 10 bags.
Read 11 tweets
Where is LBP / US $ Rate Heading?

Speculating on future of exchange rates is notoriously hard

Capital Controls have so far prevented us from finding out the true value of #Lebanon ‘s currency

Though it’s hard to make country comparisons, it is useful to study #Turkey ==>
Since LBP has been pegged, this 👇 is how #Turkey ‘s currency performed versus #Lebanon ‘s

1000 Turkish Liras bought 1023 LBP in 2010. It only buys 254 now

This is depreciation of -75% in the Turkish lira

Should LBP fall by the same amount, it would be at 6000 today
It’s safe to say that inflows into #Lebanon have fallen to near zero now

This leaves current accounts and central bank reserves to do the lifting

We know where BDL reserves are

See also how much more negative current account to GDP ratio is in #Lebanon (blue) versus #Turkey
Read 8 tweets
COVID-19 in Lebanon🇱🇧: What does the age distribution of confirmed cases tell us about under-reporting of cases?
A comparison with South Korea 🇰🇷 China 🇨🇳 & Italy 🇮🇹
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
1/ Age is an important factor not only because older people may have diminished immune function, but also because chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease & diabetes (key risk factors for worse outcomes in COVID-19) are much more prevalent in those over 50 years old.
2/ As of April 11:
Lebanon had a total of 630 cases |20 deaths (CFR= 3.2%)
South Korea had a total of 10,480 cases | 211 deaths (CFR= 2.0%)
China had a total of 82,800 cases | 3,339 deaths (CFR= 2.3%)
Italy had a total of 152,300 cases | 19,500 deaths (CFR= 12.5%)
Read 22 tweets
Al-Mansouri massacre 13 April,1996.
Please read the thread till the end to know a bit about the #Israeli crimes in South #Lebanon.
We will never forget.
The thread is mainly the words of a Reuters living witness of the massacre.
Still some people wonder why are we against #Israel
2 families were fleeing the indiscriminate shelling that struck southern Lebanon in April,1996 when they were spotted by the #Israeli enemy that launched his criminal missiles to their car.
6 were murdered & 7 were wounded.
All were women & children,the youngest of whom did not exceed the 1st month of her life & the eldest was 35 years old.
Najla Abu Jahjah,a Reuters photographer,tells details of the massacre,saying"I have seen massacres before,but the massacre of Al-Mansouri ambulance is the worst"
Read 19 tweets
#Lebanon ‘s citizens are angry & for good reason

Many have lost their life savings

Many have lost their jobs

Everyone is looking for answers

Everyone is looking to point blame at someone, anyone..

Not surprisingly, Politicians & Bankers have been easy targets

But...
2-As people know by now, #Lebanon had a unique formula

Super educated & wealthy diaspora who escaped the civil war & thrived in their new domicile countries

As the war ended, this diaspora eagerly waited for holidays & summers to go back

They also sent their savings home
3-#Lebanon ‘s modern history always seemed intertwined with banking (see فرعون و شيحا)

But since the end of the civil war, this industry went into overdrive

Govt was offering bonds to borrow for construction

Diaspora was both willing & ready to fund these banks

But why?
Read 11 tweets
#Lebanon ‘s Govt Reform Draft Document offers comprehensive repudiation of the existing economic order since currency peg was introduced in 1997

As will elaborate further in Thread

It argues that come summer of 2021, most of the banks you see today will no longer be around ==>
2-Document is an excellent blueprint. It is comprehensive & first semi-official admission of losses at the three levels of Govt, Banks & @BDL_Lebanon

Plan makes it clear #IMF is a prerequisite

CEDRE is assumed to follow

Also Note the Tough Internal Reform Assumptions
3-Bank restructuring is supposed to start with US$20.8 billion capital write-off of existing shareholders. After wiping out this number, US$62.4 billion of losses will be covered by contribution from "large depositors". Exact parameters of this contribution is yet to be defined
Read 4 tweets
Millions of #Lebanon’s residents are at risk of going hungry due to #COVID_19 lockdown measures unless the government urgently puts in place a robust, coordinated plan to provide assistance. Latest from @hrw:
hrw.org/news/2020/04/0…
On April 1, govt announced it would distribute 400,000 LBP ($150) to the poorest families, but offered few details. A week earlier, it had pledged 75 billion LBP ($50,000) for nutrition + sanitary assistance, w/out any details - unclear whether both refer to the same assistance.
But almost a month after the #Lebanon government announced the lockdown, and despite repeated pledges to provide aid, activists providing aid to needy families in #Beirut, #Saida, #Tripoli, and #Zgharta told @hrw that no aid has materialized.
Read 6 tweets
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon and for those -prematurely- celebrating the containment of COVID19 in Lebanon 🇱🇧; check this out please 👇

#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
@thehealthnerds
1/ The only certain # we currently have is the total # of deaths. As shown in previous thread & based on an approach that is used in other countries, you can estimate the “potential” # of cases that we should have in order to have 19 deaths on April 7.
2/ How to do this?
Examine different case fatality ratios (CFRs): 1%, 2.5%, 5%
Examine different times to death: 17 days & 10 days
# of deaths on April 7 = 19
Calculate potential # of cases based on different growth rates (doubling time: 8 days, 10 days)
Read 14 tweets

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