Thread by @firassabiad

1/6.Before we discuss easing the lockdown, let us consider the following:

2/6.Bshirri has many lessons to teach us. The rate of infection in the community reached almost 10%. #Covid19 spreads easily in a closely-knit community. Consider if we were to have similar infection rate in crowded workplaces, universities, prisons, refugee camps, etc..

3/6. A week has passed, and not all the community in Bshirri, less than a 1000, have been tested. Clearly, our testing capacity is not where we want it to be. However, the spread of the infection to other parts seems to be limited, mainly because of strong lockdown measures.

4/6. Singapore, a veteran of SARS, has mounted an exemplary response to #COVID19. The spread was contained. The number of new cases was under control. 12000 tests per million have been performed. However, Singapore reported yesterday the highest daily increase in #Covid19 cases.

5/6. Singapore reported 447 new cases in one day, as the infection reached the dormitory housing low-wage foreign workers. The following graph illustrates the difference between cases in dorms ( keep rising) vs elsewhere( stabilized).

6/6. As we discuss when to ease the lockdown, we need to remember the following:
A. Capacity to test, trace, and treat has to be optimal.
B. Easing the lockdown will be gradual.
B. We are as strong as our weakest link.
C. Setbacks will occur, this is a marathon, not a race.