Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
Apr 21, 2020 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The first death associated with the devastating #COVID19 outbreak at the #Cargill meat-packing plant in High River, #Alberta has been announced. As of April 20, 484 cases associated with the plant have been reported, with more to come.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
On April 17, 358 total cases were reported, with 200 being employees and contractors of the plant and 158 involving others in households connected to Cargill. Today, these numbers were updated to 484 total cases, with 360 being workers and 124 being close contacts of workers.
I got to wondering: what might this outbreak look like as a transmission network? This is what I came up with. Case among workers (primary cases) are red. Cases among close contacts of workers (secondary cases) are blue. These are simulated data—I have no special access to info. Image
Since the primary cases greatly outnumber the secondary cases at the moment, most of the primary cases are clustered close to the dot in the centre (representing the plant). These primary cases are not associated with any secondary cases. Image
Primary cases positioned further from the centre have more secondary cases: 1, 2, 3, or even 4. Most of these would probably represent spread to members of the same household. Why so many 0s? Many cases are yet to be identified, and many may be asymptomatic. Image
The original article noted some households had “multiple exposures, including in long-term care facilities with outbreaks of COVID-19”.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
So some cases associated with Cargill workers may have come from long-term care. Alternately, some of the Cargill cases may have inadvertently spread it to long-term care through close household contacts working in that setting.
What does this all mean? At this point, not much. It’s just a pretty picture. But hopefully it can help to illustrate the devastating consequences of working conditions that have not been adapted to the realities of #PhysicalDistancing during #COVID19. Image
As I tweeted a few days ago, here in #Canada we have shockingly little data available on race and health, as well as other social determinants of health. This harms our ability to understand the #COVID19 outbreak in #Canada, as well as other diseases.

If you’re interested in how this simulation and visualization was created, I’ve posted the R code on GitHub.👇

github.com/jeanpaulrsoucy…

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More from @JPSoucy

Feb 19, 2022
I encourage everyone to read this thoughtful 🧵 about the worrying precedent set by the invocation of the Emergencies Act in Canada to freeze people out of the financial system without due process. /1
The order for financial service providers (banks, credit cards, crowdfunding platforms, etc.) to freeze the accounts of anyone associated directly or "indirectly" with the protest gives the government extremely wide latitude to act. /2

As the author points out, the ability to exercise your constitutionally protected rights (freedom of expression, assembly, religion, etc.) is often underpinned by the ability to transact. Exercising your rights costs money! /3

Read 7 tweets
Oct 3, 2021
One thing that has bugged me since the beginning of the pandemic: how did the CDC get sidelined so completely? How did Dr. Fauci, the head of an agency almost no one had ever heard of, become the public face of the COVID response, while CDC Dir. Redfield had almost 0 presence?
Is it as simple as NIAID being in the D.C. Metro area whereas the CDC is situated away from Washington, in Atlanta? (Thanks to Coca-Cola president Robert Woodruff, incidentally)
Maybe @DFisman has some insight on this one.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2, 2021
Hey. I’ve been working on #COVID19 #OpenData for a while now, but the time has come to think bigger. Today I’m announcing the launch of a new project: What Happened? COVID-19 in Canada

Let’s build a unified platform for COVID-19 data in Canada. Together.

whathappened.coronavirus.icu Image
This project has three pillars: a definitive timeline, a comprehensive archive and pandemic storytelling.
1. There’s a ton of #COVID19 #OpenData out there and we want to stitch it into one definitive dataset covering cases, vaccination, hospitalizations and every other relevant metric. To succeed, we will need to design a standardized way to assemble and present COVID-19 data.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 1, 2021
Well done, @UofT:
✅ 99% have first dose 💉
✅ 94% are fully vaccinated 💉💉

How do other universities in Canada measure up? #COVID19 #vaccine @UofT_dlsph Image
...among the 76,000 students, staff and faculty that have declared their status. It's not clear how many HAVEN'T declared their status (and thus what the overall vaccination rate is). Waiting for answers from @UofT on this one.

Read 4 tweets
Sep 21, 2021
Please stop linking to this garbage report as "CDC confirms #COVID19 #vaccines have killed at least 150,000 Americans."

downloads.regulations.gov/CDC-2021-0089-…
Yes, it's posted on a .gov website. Anyone is allowed to submit comments on articles printed in the Federal Register, which are then posted to regulations.gov alongside the original document.

regulations.gov/document/CDC-2…
This is like calling every article indexed on PubMed an "NIH study" but much, much worse.
Read 9 tweets

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