(1/4) Q: I've been hearing a lot about false negative #COVID19 test results. Can you explain?
A: The false negative rate is the % of infected individuals who incorrectly test negative for #COVID.
(2/4) For example, a hot-off-the-press @NPR article reports a 15% false negative rate for @AbbottNews's new rapid COVID test. A 15% false negative rate indicates that out of 100 infected individuals, 15 would incorrectly test negative.
(3/4)
How do we assess the false negative rate? We give some individuals a newly available test, and others the best test currently available. The false positive rate captures the proportion of individuals testing positive with the established test and negative with the new test.
(4/4)
A high rate of false negatives will provide a false sense of security: infected individuals could unintentionally spread the disease as they return to work and social activities.
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).