We normally produce 80-million+ barrels a day, and half the world (the rich half, mostly) is under lockdown.
Do we need 3/4 of the oil we did? 1/2? 1/4?
20-million+, 40-million+ or 60-million+ barrels/day less?
A year or more from now, when we (hopefully) have a vaccine?
How much will our consumption habits have changed by then?
How much renewable power will have been installed?
How many vehicles will be hybrid or electric?
Then look at the underlying math for oil coming out of this era, which is even worse.
How much money would we save on an annual basis if we swapped out fossil fuels for renewables in this instance?
They then take a loan where the payments are substantially below the easily assessed savings.
They save money every month.
The Pentagon/US Federal government has tremendous credit, of course.
But there's a ton of institutions which could do this.
Businesses. State and local governments.
De facto negative cost.
What if the Federal government provided a zero-interest loan with payments that are again *below* the monthly saving accrued, w/payments beginning only once the system is purchased and installed?
In areas where renewables are viable, this would be swift.
But how many major intersections *have* to stay open in a small city during power failures to avoid instant gridlock?
20? 30?
You don't have to change out everything.
Swap out the lights at key intersections, and just keep re-using the grid-dependent lights, elsewhere, replacing them as you can budget it in.
Homeland security demands a considerable budget. Could some of these demands be combined and offset?
Again, a cost of less than zero.
Even without getting into radically improved methods, like cheap superconductive power cells or generating all our natural gas using algae in biodigesters.
You can dump algae into biodigesters & produce all the methane (natural gas) that you need.
Conventional GTL tech converts NG to oil at $25/barrel *without* pricing in de facto free energy or feedstocks.
futureimperative.blogspot.com/2011/07/amazon…
And yes, this is all public domain.
You're welcome.
So recycle your CO2, exhaust (CO2/water) & decayed organics back in & you have an inexhaustible supply.
Leftover organics? Dried out, & you're just a low-oxygen burn away from charcoal. & that's your *waste.*
Used slurry or charcoal can be used as organic fertilizer.
The key isn't a net-zero carbon output.
It's a net-*negative* output until we can stabilize the climate.
Or it can adsorb compressed natural gas, allowing CNG to be used as fuel in conventional gas-powered vehicles at a much lower pressure.
Practical #Nanotech? Solar = to photosynthesis?
Why not use the algae & bacteria we already have?
Clean/efficient/cheap.
Many companies promote their #algae research but the public domain is open to everyone. No need for patented tech.
Example: Compressed natural gas can replace gasoline in normal cars - requires canisters, hoses & a switch on the dashboard.
But we don't have to.
An odd declaration, seemingly out of nowhere.
What do they know that most didn't?
npr.org/sections/money…
Yes, without counting an effectively free feedstock & energy source for the conversion.
The real cap is presumably lower than $25/barrel.
chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm
Assuming you still *want* oil, with clean natural gas generating limitless electricity or pure-silica solar panels.
Raw heat, sand & a bit of recycled copper make pure-silica solar panels; less efficient than rare earth, but literally printable… from *sand.*
#3DPrinting
Or simply cast. The cheap, if less exotic method.
The greatest cost to recycling metal, paper, plastic & glass? Again, raw heat, now virtually free.
Clean, almost free fuel/fertilizer/electricity for world’s poor is the best investment imaginable.
No one owes you a market. Much less a toxic, $3 trillion+/year revenue stream that is killing the planet.
So, oil with an effective cap of $25/barrel or lower vs solar & natural gas that are practically free.
Which brings us back to Russia.
Russia’s economy - her per-capita GDP - fell 40+% from 2013 through 2015 in the wake of the 2014 oil crash.
google.com/search?q=russi…
What will a demand drop of 4 – 8 million/day - or more - do to them?
What will a drop of 20 to 40 to 60 million/day do to them?
And now we're in a pandemic.
With most of the rich half of the world already in lockdown.
The supply-demand balance in oil and gas prices has always been precarious.
Welcome to the tipping point.
Russia exports oil, gas & weapons.
And her various criminal enterprises.
Coal is effectively finished as an energy source - as of 2016, the top 4 US producers lost 99% value in 5 years.
Gas & oil are on the same path.
If our banks don't countersign you, no one this side of North Korea will.
So... We just saw buyers wait until the price was *less* than zero on a commodity before purchasing it?
As global storage space runs out, how many discretionary buyers will wait until oil-delivery contracts come due?
At most, you're apt to find prices closer to zero, if not below it.
But these bets are only *part* of the demand problem.
But we have a wild oversupply, & global storage due to fill up in a few weeks.
What happens when it *costs* you to store oil, and the people you pay aren't willing to simply dump it?
We could be looking at massively reduced demand for oil running for one or two years, even as renewables reduce overall demand for fossil fuels permanently.
Remember, it *costs* them to hold it.
Some may be willing to take the hit and go slightly negative, if necessary, to avoid a long-term liability.
And people are beginning to price in the risk.