1/ Thanks very much to @JJSchroden for organizing this panel. It’s a real pleasure to join @Afghan_Policy and @a_a_jackson. #AFGpanel
2/ I’ve been asked to comment on #COVID19 and the conflict, which I wrote about last week carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/14/afg… in a larger collection with @franceszbrown. #AFGPanel
3/ For starters, it is important to acknowledge that it is not too late for the combatants to heed @antonioguterres’s call for a global ceasefire, take advantage of the nascent peace process, and turn to the dramatic governance challenge of the pandemic. #AFGPanel
4/ But that’s not what’s happened so far. The virus may have provided a little cover for the parties’ inevitable failure to meet the ambitious schedule in the Doha agreement. From here on, the logistic challenges of negotiations will mainly be negative. #AFGPanel
5/ Military, I think it is consistent with @a_a_jackson’s presentation to say that both sides will seek local battlefield advantages. #AFGPanel
6/ The biggest implication will be to loose international attention on Afghanistan, solidifying the trend to US military withdrawal and, much more dangerously, reduced financial support. This changes leverage dynamics in any negotiations and makes any deal harder to sustain.
8/ Finally, I think #coronavirus will challenge some of the generational change we’ve seen: education, health care, urbanization — in a way that will implicate the governance goals we’ve already discussed.
End #AFGPanel
End #AFGPanel
