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Nightly #COVID19 update for #Missouri with data through 4/28 has been pushed to my tracking site. Will have a full šŸ§µ in the morning, but wanted to share that the 7-day average of new cases in MO, not including the #StLouis metro, hit a new peak yesterday of 74.71 cases. 1/3
You can see updated versions of my plots and interactive maps, along with zip code and individual level data for #StLouis that is current as of tonight (it will be a day ahead from now on), on the site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_viā€¦ 2/3
Incase you missed it, there has been a change to my data sources and methodology, and so the timing of updates will be different from tonight on. My thread from this morning has all the details on these changes! 3/3
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Chris Prener
@chrisprener
Here is my #Missouri #COVID šŸ§µ for Tuesday, 4/28. To see the interactive maps, head over to the MO tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_viā€¦.

Today, we have a special Parsonā€™s reopening edition of the thread, with two plots showing new cases in MO šŸ‘‡: 1/16
Specifically, the plots ā˜ļø show a 7-day average of new cases in MO on both a log and a linear scale. They break apart all of MOā€™s new cases, and only new cases outside of the #StLouis metro (since that is where many reported cases are). Iā€™ve labeled peak dates as well. 2/16
Part of the White Houseā€™s plan is to identify ā€œdata-drivenā€ metrics that show improvement in states, one of which is whether new cases are declining. I donā€™t know if states got more guidance than what is on the White Houseā€™s websiteā€¦ 3/16
Read 16 tweets
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Chris Prener
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Just wrapped a text convo with a buddy who is an infectious disease expert. We were talking about the Santa Clara antibody study whose preprint made a big splash yesterday, suggesting that COVID cases are way more common than our testing data suggest. 1/7
As a lot of smart people are pointing out, the paperā€™s results are not quite as earth shattering as media reports are making it out to be. Their lower end estimates are consistent with hypothesized asymptomatic/mild infection rates. Thereā€™s also the issue of false positives. 2/7
Iā€™m more interested in how people respond to these data, though, than what the specifics of the paper are. And. People. Are. Losing. Their. Minds. So much armchair quarterbacking about how we shut down the economy for nothing. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
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Chris Prener
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This is hard to hear, and I fear it is only the beginning of the bad news we're going to hear about #COVID19 and health disparities. I've been asked 3 times in the past 24 hours about what we could do differently right now. A short thread: 1/6
I've given the same depressing answer every time - I'm not in a position to judge the specific efforts of local public health departments. We can't read this as a real time failure to intervene and test - that is the wrong lesson here. Testing is a national embarrassment. 2/6
Racial disparities are a national shame. They are the culmination of a process that goes back to 1619 and before. We've spend centuries building up to a moment where a largely unchecked pandemic tears through marginalized communities, including African American neighborhoods. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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