There were 2 important #COVID19 tracing reports this week:
China 391 cases, 1,286 contacts
Taiwan 1st 100 cases, 2,761 contacts
thelancet.com/journals/lanin… @TheLancetInfDis
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai… @JAMAInternalMed
What can we learn from them? 1/x
China 391 cases, 1,286 contacts
Taiwan 1st 100 cases, 2,761 contacts
thelancet.com/journals/lanin… @TheLancetInfDis
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai… @JAMAInternalMed
What can we learn from them? 1/x
While the median case incubation period was 4-5 days in both studies, there was a considerable range 2/x
"Attack rates were similar across all age categories of
infected contacts"
"Notably, the rate of infection in children younger than 10 years (7·4%) was similar to the population
average (6·6%)." 3/x
infected contacts"
"Notably, the rate of infection in children younger than 10 years (7·4%) was similar to the population
average (6·6%)." 3/x
The secondary attack rate among contacts:
Shenzhen: Household contacts 11.2%
Taiwan: Household contacts 4.6%
Another way to look at this is that most household contacts did not get infected 4/x
Shenzhen: Household contacts 11.2%
Taiwan: Household contacts 4.6%
Another way to look at this is that most household contacts did not get infected 4/x
Both studies underscore the importance of transmission in people without symptoms, many of whom prove to be pre-symptomatic. Tracing needs to find contacts of the index case 4-5 days before symptoms developed. Symptom-based tracing is weak compared w/ contact tracing. 5/x
