Thread by @TomKislingbury

Some thoughts on Anthony McFarland.
I've seen him creeping higher and higher in rookie drafts.
The logic goes that the Steelers want to use James Conner less, and McFarland was picked fairly early so he's got a job.
I'm unconvinced.
#Thread

So the first thing is team RB approach - the Steelers under Tomlin were traditionally a "lead back" team.
Which is why Conner [and Lev Bell before him] had such great seasons.
But that appeared to change last year. They never showed any intention to have a lead back

Here's weekly splits in 2019.
If you squint you can probably claim W1 was a lead back approach. But remember they took an absolute pasting from the Patriots. Weird game.

Anyway - I'm not dwelling on that.
People like to see bellcow back intentions where there aren't any. Usually driven by them owning FF shares of a back that would benefit.
I think they realised when Conner got hurt in 2018 that relying on one back is bad for business

So let's look at how they used their multiple backs shall we?
Here's the overall breakdown.
It's a little tough to discern from here because of injuries.
It was muddled on rushing attempts. But Samuels was the clear top receiving back.

Here's rush/target splits for all the backs last year.
As hinted before - Samuels was the lead receiving back.
Unsurprising given he played that weird slot WR / short yardage back hybrid on college.
Although some people still think he was a college TE based on his combine group

Also look at Snell and Whyte here.
Those guys are not getting used in the passing game.
Just not going to happen.
Those are Adrian Peterson levels of one-dimensionality

Here's use by down.
Relatively similar all across the board.
Not all receiving backs are third down backs.
It's not as clear as that.

We should note here that the Steelers offense was totally inept.
They amassed just 4,428 offensive yards.
Which ranks 312th of 320 teams in the last decade.
Only just ahead of the Jets and Redskins in 2019.

Fun fact - the 2019 Steelers managed fewer offensive yards than any Browns or Bengals team of the last decade.

Anyway - back to it.
The Steelers did not have a clear strategy for using certain backs on certain downs.
So we can be reasonably sure McFarland does not have some sort of late down role. Or any other down.

Here's usage by yards-to-go.
You can sort of argue Samuels was used more on longer distance downs.
But compared to other teams this is not that clear.
Again - this is relatively even.
Especially against league-wide trends.
The Steelers do not have a clear "short-yardage back"

Which is entirely normal.
Very few teams have a short yardage back.
It's an old-fashioned concept that fans mistakenly think is still common.
The NFL realised years ago that smaller backs like Dion Lewis can be effective on short yardage plays.
Because it's not 1965.

Here's the same data by player.
There are just no clear tendencies here.
The role does not exist.
At least based on recent evidence.

Usage by quarter.
Just for giggles.
Conner used a bit more early in games.
Samuels a bit more later.
This is likely just a product of gamescript.
Remember the Steelers offense was awful.
Even if they did win games [against terrible opposition] they could not move the ball

Here's yards per rush/target.
Benny Snell is such a plodder.
He's just a guy who runs into a gap and gets tackled.
I think they drafted McFarland because they realised Snell is bad.

Same data with yards instead of number of plays.
James Conner actually had the highest proportion of yards from big plays.
Given Samuels' use as a receiving option this is noteworthy.
I don't think Conner was as bad as people think he was.

Rushing by gap.
We tend to assume that small backs rush outside and big backs rush up the middle.
Not true.
Even receiving backs and scatbacks rush more up the gut than anywhere else.
Certainly the Steelers do not have a specialist back for A gap runs

While we're on gaps - I like this chart.
You can see where teams attacked certain players on opposition teams.
The Steelers seemed to see something about the Bills that made them rush to the right.
You just don#t see this stuff live. You need to check the numbers to see it.

So.
Let's sum it all up as pertains to McFarland.
I think there are 3 roles for this team.
Roughly those were James Conner's, Jaylen Samuels and the primary backup for early-down rushing.
Conner and Samuels are both going to be on the roster this year. They're both cheap

But - they're also both out of contract after 2020 and not necessarily worth resigning. Certainly not on big cash.
So McFarland can come in and battle Snell for the reserve gig.
And fight whoever else is on the roster in a year's time for the main rushing job. Assuming he does OK

I don't see big value there at all.
We saw last year what happened when Conner got hurt.
The Steelers did not suddenly give the next man up all the volume.
Again - this offense was atrocious. So we have to bear that in mind

But the only way I see McFarland worth an early pick [I've seen him go in the 2nd round] is if he takes Conner's job immediately.
Or he owns it going into 2021.
I see both those as being very unlikely.
Everyone thinks all rookies are amazing - but he's just not a special prospect