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The ongoing QB megathread starts up again.
8 teams left to cover.
Next - the Jets.
Spoiler: I don't think Sam Darnold is very good.
He's still crazy young and he might get better but at the moment he's not been good and I'm not a believer in ageing=improving.
There have been lot of QBs who were bad young and never got good.
Here's how I score him after 2 years.
Pretty badly.
Poor accuracy.
Poor yds/attempt.
Poor chain-moving.
Poor TD rate.
Too many picks.
Adam Gase is certainly part of this but it's hard to see the good bits of Darnold bar isolated moments.
Darnold's body of work compares to these guys.
"Slightly worse than Shaun Hill and David Garrard" is not a mark of quality.
I know Darnold is still not even 23.
But for him to be good he'd need to get better at EVERYTHING.
And under Adam Gase that doesn't seem likely to me.
Sadly I think we'll see another year of him as a Jet and the whole team will get blown up again.
NEXT - The Eagles.
Here's Carson Wentz.
Pretty solid after a rocky rookie season - standard.
His accuracy has been rough at times but he's a chain-mover
Here's Wentz' career against similar volume players.
I'd say he's obviously been not as good as Dak. But equally obviously much better than Keenum, Freeman or Cassel.
He's not been as good as I thought he was [remember some people thought his 2017 was MVP-level before he got hurt] and seemed to remember. But he's a solid, better than average starter.
Next - The Steelers.
What to say about Big Ben?
And the other muck they started back there last year
Here's Big Ben in the tool.
Fantastic, consistent scoring. He's sixth for me during the period included [2009-2019].
Obviously 2019 was too small a sample to really take seriously. Even if it was awful
Here's all 3 Steelers QBs in 2019.
Bad, bad, bad.
Bad yds/attempt.
Bad accuracy.
Bad first down rate.
Remember lots of people thought Mason Rudolph was a first round prospect.
That friend of yours that clams he's a QB guru because he liked Pat Mahomes and Dak Prescott - there's a decent chance he also liked Mason Rudolph.
And Nathan Peterman.
And Chad Kelly.
We're guessing on QBs
So the Steelers have it simple.
Either Big Ben comes back and plays well for a year or two before retiring.
Or they draft a QB.
Or they're going to suck again.
Either way Mike Tomlin must be awake at nights wondering how he's going to get his hands on a new QB.
It's worth noting the Steelers in 2019 compiled just 4,428 offensive yards in 2019.
That placed them 312th of the 320 teams in the last 10 years.
If the 2019 Jets and Redskins hadn't been even worse this would be a much bigger story.
NEXT - Seahawks.
Russell Wilson is a stud.
Here's Wilson in the tool.
I'd like to see better 3rd down conversion numbers but the yds/attempt and INT numbers are elite.
Here's how he compares to other players with similar volume in the tool.
His yds/attempt, high TD rate and low INT rate show up.
Next up - the 49ers.
Warning - I like Jimmy G more than most people.
But I will explain why.
And it's not just how handsome he is.
Not ~just~ that.
Here's Jimmy G's 2019 against similar-volume QB seasons.
Kyle Shanahan is clearly a big factor. As was the deep roster.
But I think his 2019 was outstanding.
The fact they ran the ball a lot in January does not change my mind here.
Yds/attempt, TD rate, 1st down rate...
All great
Here's Jimmy G's career numbers against similar-volume players [just using 09-19 data so not Favre's entire career].
Garoppolo clearly ahead in accuracy, yds/attempt, overall 1st down rate and 3rd down conversion.
That's really impressive to me.
I know a lot of people don't love Jimmy G ["he lost the SB to Pat Mahomes a few months ago - he sucks!"] but I think he's a really good player.
And combined with Shanahan [who clearly likes him and knows MUCH more about Q play than any of us] I think he's a super solid option.
Next - The Buccaneers.
How weird is it thinking about Tom Brady here?
Obviously Brady is the GOAT.
But last year was also clearly his worst season in a while.
Some of that was his much-criticised receiving weapons but I saw enough to convince me he had definitely declined a bit.
And I think it shows up here.
Here's Brady from last year against Bruc Arian's QBs in his last 5 seasons coaching.
Significant differences in yds/attempt, first down conversion and INT rate.
There's much more detailed work around on how Brady and BA combine philosophy.
But it shows up here too.
Ultimately Brady and BA are both smart enough to make it work. Especially with the weapons available.
But I don't think it's going to be an elite offense given Brady's current ability.
Brady could easily pass for 1,000 fewer yards than Jameis Winston did in 2019.
Next - the Titans.
How do I say this?
Ryan Tannehill is going to turn back into a pumpkin.
Here's Tannehill's career.
His 2019 was great from an efficiency point of view.
But it's so far from what he's been - I just don't think it's close to being sustainable.
Here's the seasons in the tool with:
- 70+ accuracy
- 8+ yds/Attempt
- 40%+ first down rate
- 100+ passes thrown
If you expect Tannehill to play as well [with more volume] you're asking for peak Brees.
That's not realistic is it?
So obviously he won't be as good in 2020.
We all [hopefully] know that.
Te question is just whether he's still ave average or whether he plays like he has his whole career before 2019.
We do not know the answer.
We're guessing.
But I'm guessing he goes back to being bad
And the final team - Washington.
Dwayne Haskins...
Haskins had a 1.88 score as a rookie.
Thsi is BAD.
Here he is against other QBs with similar volume and grade.
It's not a great list to be compared to.
Here's Haskins against other players with just the same passing volume.
The good news is that some of these other players [there's quite a few rookie seasons here] went on to become good players.
Te bad news:
Many of them [John Skelton, Brady Quinn, Matt Cassel, Matt Flynn, Bran Hoyer] are awful players to be compared to.
And Haskins might just be one of those guys
I expect a 15% improvement from rookie season to year 2 - then to stabilise going forwards. This is based on what I've seen from all the other rookies.
But Haskins needs a much bigger improvement. He needs to improve by about 50% to be good.
It could happen.
I doubt it though
And we're DONE!
That's how I see all 32 NFL teams.
Some of you have disagreed with me. vehemently.
Some of you have agreed.
Either way I hope you've enjoyed it.
And thanks for reading along.
Unroll this please!
And thankyou
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