Thread by @TomKislingbury

OK.
I shared thoughts on the first 8 teams QB situations this morning.

https://twitter.com/TomKislingbury/status/1243463709273579522?s=20

This is going to be the #Thread thread for the next 8...

The Cowboys are up first.
So here's a look at Rayne Dakota Prescott.
He's one of the layers that has pleasantly surprised me.
According to the way I measure and grade he's been consistently excellent.

His 2019 ranked 31st of 376 qualifying seasons [100+ attempts].
I'm not sure people realise how good the 2019 Cowboys offense were in yardage terms.
They had the 3rd most offensive yards of any team in the last decade.

To put that another way:
Dak led an offense that had more yards than 316 of the 320 teams in the last 10 years.
And then they sacked the head coach because the offense had stalled.

This data makes me feel much more confident in Dak as a passer than I was. I think he's a top 8 option now. I definitely did not think that before I did this project.

Next: the Broncos.
There's a lot of love for Drew Lock floating around.
Especially after Elway came out [eventually] and confirmed he's the guy.
Needless to say - I disagree with Elway.
And given his track record with QBs I don't think that's a bad thing

Lock played limited snaps in 2019.
Remember - the Broncos started Brandon Allen before they rolled Lock out there. And Flacco of course.
That's not a good thing.
Lock eventually scored a 2.21 for me.
Slightly lower than Trubisky, Geno Smith managed as rookies

Here's Lock and Flacco from last season.
Very similar scores - but they got there in different ways

As I mentioned in the first thread I think we can expect an average improvement of around 15% [on average] from Y1 to Y2.
Which would make Lock a 2.5ish QB.
That's worse than Joe Flacco or Blake Bortles managed in most seasons.
I don't think he's the guy based on what we've seen.

Next - the Lions.
Matt Stafford played minimally last year. But he still threw the ball 291 times - that's more than Ryan Tannehill.

Here's the two of them together. With Mason Rudolph too.
A 2.99 was pretty decent for Stafford.
He lacked the astounding yds/attempt or TD rate Tannehill did - but those were outlier numbers. We shouldn't mark Stafford down for them.

Here's Stafford for the past few years.
Consistently high scores after his very shaky start.

I see no reason not to believe Stafford can still be a good QB for the remainder of his massive contract.
I know he's been there for a long time and people are a bit bored but he's been good.

Next - The Packers.
Here's Aaron Rodgers season by season.
He's clearly not the same player he was at his peak but then his peak was transcendent.
He's still playing well.

He was 12th for me in 2019 by the way.
Level with DeShaun Watson.

I'm not going to dwell on him too long.
He's a top 12 QB pretty easily.
He could be top 6 this year and no-one would be shocked.
He's ageing but he's still a good starter for now and the next handful of years.

Next - the Texans.
I just mentioned DeShaun Watson scored the same as Aaron Rodgers in 2019. Here's them together.
Same score - different way of getting it.
Watson more accurate and converted better - but he also threw more stupid picks.

Here's Watson season by season.
The same pattern we consistently see - bad rookie year with a nice leap.
Then stabilising into the player they are.
Watson has showed excellent yds/att and first down conversion.
But he has things to improve on too.
He's still a top 8 QB for me.

Colts up next.
Phillip Rivers is obviously in a new place. But at ths stage he probably is what he is.
He scored a 3.21 last season.

He's been a massively consistent player in my system.
And I see little reason to believe that changes.
I expect him to score over 3 again and be a top half QB. Maybe top 10.

Next - my boy Gardner Minshew.
Everyone knows I love a moustache.
And Minshew is just FUN.

He scored a 2.98 as a rookie for me. Which is certainly a good rookie mark.
In fact since 2010 only a few rookies have managed better:
Dak
Russ Wilson
Jameis
RG3
Luck
Baker
That's impressive

But his numbers are also a bit worrying.
Specifically his overall accuracy and his 1st down conversion rates [overall and on 3rd down].
He's a YOLO ball guy so you expect this but it's tough to evaluate.
Overall I like him a ton. But he's high risk too.

Last team for this thread is an easy one - the Chiefs.
Mahomes is a stud.

His 2018 season is the 3rd best season in my database.
Behind only Peyton Manning in 2013 and Drew Brees in 2011.
Just ahead of 2011 Aaron Rodgers and 2016 Matt Ryan.
That is absurdly good company.

Here's his two seasons [excluding his rookie year on low volume].
3rd down conversion, yards per attempt and TD rate are all elite.
He's a stud.
He will continue to be a stud.
Simples.

@threadreaderapp
Unroll this please!
And thankyou