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When I next teach about global trade, #COVID19 will be featured.

Why?

Because it makes stark the policy choice major powers face in the global economy: Weaponize or Stabilize?

[THREAD]
In my lectures on global markets (whether for goods, services, debt, investments, etc), the key lesson is captured in this slide
"Stabilize" refers to Charles Kindleberger and his 1972 book "The World in Depression"

amazon.com/World-Depressi…
In the book, he laid out Hegemonic Stability Theory, which I summarized here

Kindleberger himself didn't refer to it as "Hegemonic Stability Theory": that name came from Robert Keohane in a 1980 piece written in an edited volume by Ole Holsti

google.com/books/edition/…
Keohane wrote
"Weaponize" refers to the excellent @Journal_IS piece by @henryfarrell & @ANewman_forward

mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.11…
They write how states central to an economic system can leverage that centrality to coerce others
This echoes the earlier work of Susan Strange.

google.com/books/edition/…
Here is the key quote from Strange's book

#COVID19 heightens this choice because it reveals the fragility of the global trade system

Namely, the breakdown of shipping and supply chains

indianexpress.com/article/busine…
Which is having consequences for everything from food...

news.uga.edu/ag-economist-c…
...(and the possible starvation of millions)...

pbs.org/newshour/show/…
... to Nintendo Switches!

bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic…
The breakdown in supply chains was highlighted by @henryfarrell & @ANewman_forward in a recent @foreignaffairs piece...

foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-…
...and in this recent Net Assessment (@WarOnTheRocks) podcast

warontherocks.com/2020/04/covid-…
In the face of such fragility, the major economic powers, namely the US and China, have a choice: stabilize or weaponize?
Experts are concerned that the powers will choose to "weaponize" and pursue protectionism.

See @ChadBown in @ForeignAffairs

foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
This concern is warranted since #COVID19 is exacerbating existing economic disputes

cgai.ca/lessons_from_c…
Indeed, stabilizing doesn't seem to be the policy chosen by the US...

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
...especially towards China.

wsj.com/articles/comme…
But China also doesn't seem to be taking the "stablizing" route, either towards its neighbors...

canberratimes.com.au/story/6736562/…
...or Europe

foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/28/eur…
Disputes regarding trade are tied up in disputes over "punishing China" for the outbreak.
For instance, see...

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
...and

scmp.com/economy/china-…
#COVID19 puts the global economy in real danger. States face a choice: stabilize or weaponize.

Currently, with respect to the health of the global trade system, states are choosing poorly.

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Related hashtags

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More from @ProfPaulPoast see all

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Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is World Peace a bright side to #COVID19?

That's the argument Barry Posen makes in @ForeignAffairs.

I'm not so sure 🤔

[THREAD]

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
Posen's piece is worth reading. The core of his argument is that the pandemic weakens everyone and creates pessimism about national ability (at the moment). Both of those reduce willingness to take the gamble of war, both now and possibly for years afterwards.
Given Posen's claims, it's useful to consider how #COVID19 will impact global conflict over three time horizons:

- the short term

- the medium term

- the long term
Read 29 tweets
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Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
@PLMattis & @shifrinson had a vigorous debate over the extent that foreign policy statements/documents are "cheap talk"

Foreign policy pronouncements can be informative, to a degree. To see why, consider an exercise from "Intro to IR": @BarackObama NSS v @realDonaldTrump NSS
The NSS was singled out by @PLMattis, and rightfully so: these documents are written every few years and they don't contain a lot of "meat" (though But they are probably more substantial than SOU addresses)

What can we really glean from them?

It can be informative to engage in a "compare and contrast" exercise (something I ask of my students).
Read 16 tweets
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Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What exactly happened in the Eurozone this week? Something about a German court & the ECB?

It's complicated, but has implications for the Eurozone's #COVID19 recovery & the EU itself.

What follows is my attempt to help me (& my students) understand what happened

[THREAD]
Let's start with some background.

As is now well know, European countries have been hit hard by #COVID19 (graph from @FT)
The European countries responding with quarantines, with the subsequent economic hardships (as @javilopezEU wrote about back in March)

socialeurope.eu/europe-under-q…
Read 25 tweets

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