A: The @US_FDA has granted emergency authorization to pharmaceutical company @Roche for a new antibody test that is much more accurate than existing options.
Quick reminder about antibody testing: It provides information about PAST infections
Reason for optimism: The new test has much (!) better accuracy than others on the market, with a 1 in 500 false positive rate.
@qz explains: "If 5% of 1,000 people have #coronavirus, then, using the [the first authorized antibody test], a positive result stands only 49.5% chance of being correct. Using the Roche test on that same population, a positive result is 96% likely to be correct."
Reasons for caution: While its accuracy is now best-in-class, the Roche test is not perfect (as is the case with all tests!).
Accuracy remains particularly problematic for recent infections (past 14 day window)
Leading expert @ScottGottliebMD (former director of the @US_FDA) recommended this morning that “If you do go out and get an antibody test, and you get a positive result, meaning you have the antibodies, I would suggest you repeat it.”
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).