Thread by @jamewils

My blog post in #MinistryofFacts is here.

ARE WE TESTING INTELLIGENTLY?

Now after analysing the present trend, my analysis show that Indian may cross 80,000 infections by 15th May and 1,00,000 infections by 20th May. #COVID19

jamewils.com/2020/05/are-we…

Instead of guided by genetics, virology, and current epidemiology, Indian Government not only remain as a mute spectator but also became an active participant to promote anti-science, superstitions and fake medicines as the remedy of COVID-19 in the early days!

As COVID-19 is originated in China, our neighbour with whom we have a strong business relationship. Moreover, China is a global manufacturing hub, hence most of the global population travel to and fro from this country, make them expose to the COVID-19 originated from there.

Our policy makers failed to heed to the scientific advice given by the scientists from ICMR that the thermal screening would not identify more than 50% of the infected travellers, as they remain asymptomatic in the early stages of the infection.

As we let loose a lot of infected travellers to the society, next step was to identify as early as the infected people and isolate them before they spread the virus inadvertently to anyone who get in contact with them in that asymptomatic window.

Globally many scientific literature are available arguing for an early detection strategy, which would pay huge dividends in containing the virus.

Two States in India followed this advice from day one, yep, Kerala and Chattisgarh!

Many international epidemiologists reiterated that early detection and early response was the key and which followed by treating by isolating each virus case citing the examples of Taiwan, Iceland, New Zealand and Germany.

Kerala’s success can squarely be attributed to this trace, test, isolate, treat strategy adopted by the State. Kerala as of 23rd March, identified 95 cases and tested 3082 persons, ie, 15% of the total tests done in India at that date was from Kerala.

Meanwhile, India identified only a total 471 cases, out of that 20% was from Kerala, while Kerala’s population is just 2.6% of Indian population.

No one will have a difference of opinion that those 54 days before the lock down was the right time to brainstorm about our capabilities and limitations and chalk out a strategic plan to move forward.

But whether India done any deliberations with its State Governments and other policy bodies on this?

Answer is zilch.

A high mortality rate broadly indicates that late detection of the case, which may result more spread of the virus in the society, more immunodeficient people infected with the virus, poor health infrastructure and manpower at disposal, etc.

If Indian Government would have facilitated to ramp up its testing based on an intelligent strategy of focusing more extensive testing on the possible hotspots, sentinel testing of health workers and other vulnerable people who got more exposure....

and also random representative testing in the places, which are not undergone enough testing with a sole mission to trace, identify, isolate and treat the virus, India would have been much better control the epidemic by end of the first lockdown period itself.

Delhi is a major concern here, as its TPM increased from 57 to 2147, the tests per case halved.

At present each 13 tests return a positive COVID-19 case, and this means that Delhi has to go for extensive and strategic testing, while national average is 26!