BREAKING: US-led coalition in #Iraq#Syria suffering "a decrease in visibility" as it continues to track/counter #ISIS while consolidating forces in both countries, per acting @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell
@CJTFOIR also tells IG, its forces face a “significant risk” from ISIS prisoners
"It said that the #SDF faces continued difficulty guarding detention facilities & #ISIS-affiliated camp residents continue to facilitate ISIS activities" per acting @DoD_IG O'Donnell
Also difficulties in trying to "prevent the spread of ISIS ideology in the camps"
"CJTF-OIR reported that #ISIS continued to wage a 'low-level insurgency in both #Iraq & #Syria this quarter, but remains unable to hold territory and continues to rely on small-arms attacks" per @DoD_IG O'Donnell
"In #Iraq, these attacks were concentrated in mountainous & desert provinces north&west of #Baghdad" particularly the area claimed by both the central gvt & the Kurdistan Regional Gvt, per @DoD_IG "In #Syria, the majority of attacks occurred in #DayrazZawr, #Hasakah & #Raqqah"
NEW: @CJTFOIR 's ties w/#Iraq Security Forces impacted by tensions w/#Iran
Need to prioritize force protection to counter Iran-backed militias “probably sowed doubt within the ISF” that the Coalition would continue providing support to Iraqi forces, @DeptofDefense told @DoD_IG
NEW: Coalition accelerated transfer of bases in #Iraq to Iraqi forces - #AlQaim, #Qayyarah Airfield, Ninewa Operations Center & K-1 - due to " increased threats from malign actors and greater force protection concerns" per @DoD_IG citing @CJTFOIR
Transfer of bases to #Iraq resulted in build-up in #Syria
"The Coalition transferred assets, including fire support & medical evacuation equipment, to sites in northeastern Syria" per @DoD_IG "US force strength in the Eastern Syria Security Area (ESSA) increased slightly"
#ISIS increasing pace of attacks in #Iraq#Syria since April, per @CJTFOIR & independent assessments BUT that may not last
@CENTCOM@DefenseIntel tell @DoD_IG "ISIS lacks the capabilities to sustain elevated attack levels over several months" per the report
.@CENTCOM also told @DoD_IG the decrease in #ISIS attacks in #Syria for January-March period was “strong evidence” that ISIS is not “making a comeback"
Per @CJTFOIR, #ISIS is unable to generate resources to conduct large-scale attacks, per @DoD_IG report
@USTreasury also says ISIS revenues in #Syria at "historic lows" thought the group still has access to hundreds of millions of dollars
Per @CJTFOIR, #SDF prisons holding #ISIS fighters still running a “risk of a mass breakout"
Coalition also assesses ISIS prisoners pose “one of the most significant risks to the success of the [defeat-ISIS] mission"
US, coalition worried, too, about #ISIS families in the IDP camps like #alHol citing a "relatively permissive environment" for ISIS supporters
.@DeptofDefense@StateDept@USAID "have struggled to address the often competing needs of providing security, isolating #ISIS members and supporters, preventing the spread of ISIS ideology, & providing for the health & welfare of camp residents" per @DoD_IG
"The three Lead IG Offices of Inspector General have observed difficulties faced by the three agencies in determining how to address #ISIS activity in the camps, but none has asserted authority to address the matter directly" per @DoD_IG report
"The DoS deferred to the DoD and the SDF, which is in charge of guarding the camps, on camp security matters, stating the US Government does not claim that authority" per the @DoD_IG report
"USAID stated that a system for humanitarian coordination provided a forum for camp management to discuss security concerns, but deferred to the DoS for additional information" per @DoD_IG report
"The DoD indicated that it has limited visibility into the camps and was unable to provide an estimate of the number of #ISIS activists, or the number of violent incidents, within the camps" per @DoD_IG
10,000 ISIS-affiliated family members, tw-thirds under the age of 12
2,000 foreign women (with kids) who renounced their citizenship
.@DefenseIntel tells @DoD_IG#ISIS activists continue to recruit & spread the group's ideology in the camps
DIA also cites #SDF sources as saying attacks on the cmap guards increased in Jan-March period, but @USAID said the situation had mostly stabilized
US op that killed #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi having little impact in #Syria
"Baghdadi’s death did not result in any degradation of ISIS capabilities...likely retains an intact command & control structure, and a presence in rural regions" per @DoD_IG, citing @CJTFOIR
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HAPPENING NOW: Senate Intelligence Committee confirmation hearing for Tulsi Gabbard to serve as US Director of National Intelligence
"It’s fair to say Ms. Gabbard’s nomination has generated a bit more interest and attention than do most nominees before this committee" per Senate Committee Chairman, Tom Cotton
"But I want to stress that Ms. Gabbard has been and will be treated with the exact same respect, consideration, and professionalism that we have extended to every other nominee" per Cotton
NEW: US intelligence agencies pushing back vs claims health ailments linked to Havana Syndrome were caused by a foreign adversary
"The intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement" per a US intelligence official
"5 elements of the intelligence community continue to assess that it's very unlikely of foreign actors responsible" per the US intelligence official
BUT 2 intelligence agencies have reevaluated - "shift from unlikely w/low confidence to roughly even chance with low confidence"
The US intelligence official, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, describe the shift in view about the possible involvement of foreign adversaries as "subtle" - "They have a low confidence in their judgments"
NEW: Islamic State-Somalia getting boost from an "influx of foreign fighters"
A just-issued UN sanctions monitoring team report warns the foreign fighters "have expanded and enhanced the group’s capabilities against al-Shabaab"
Influx of foreign fighters to IS-Somalia " has coincided with the re-emergence of the Al-Karrar office as a
key administrative and financial hub for [ISIS] globally" per the UN report
IS-Somalia being led by "a cadre of former al-Shabaab
militants based in the Bari region of Puntland" per UN report
Abdirahman Fahiye Isse Mohamud is the emir of IS-Somalia, per report, "responsible for [ISIS] operations in Somalia"
NEW: Senate Democrats ask @DeptofDefense @TheJusticeDept to look at Elon Musk's reported contact w/Russian officials - "determine whether this behavior should force a review of Mr. Musk’s
continued involvement in SpaceX’s varying contracts" w/the US government
"Communications between Russian government officials and any individual with a security
clearance have the potential to put our security at risk" per @SenatorShaheen @SenJackReed
"We urge you to take appropriate action immediately"
Musk's alleged contacts with Russian officials was first reported by @WSJ, which cited current and former U.S., European and Russian officials
JUST IN: Iranian, 2 men from New York charged in connection with plot to kill Americans, including President-elect Donald Trump & a US journalist of Iranian origin
.@TheJusticeDept filed charges against 51yo Farhad Shakeri of Iran, 49yo Carlisle Rivera & 36yo Jonathon Loadholt
Shakeri remains at large in Iran
Rivera & Loadholt have been detained pending trial
@TheJusticeDept US Atty General Merrick Garland, in statement, calls Shakeri "an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump"
Pentagon assesses since February 2022, Russia's suffered 600,000 casualties
This September, "Russian forces sustained more casualties in terms of both killed & wounded in action than in any other month" per a sr US defense official
"#Russia|n losses, again, both killed & wounded in action in just the 1st year of the war exceeded the total of all Russian losses or Soviet losses in any conflict since World War Two combined" per sr US defense official
#Ukraine "have sunk, destroyed or damaged at least 32 medium to large #Russia|n Federation navy vessels in the #BlackSea" per sr US defense official