Thread by @EricBermanIN

.@GovHolcomb about to begin #coronavirus briefing, where he's expected to present results of @FSPH_IUPUI testing of nearly 5,000 randomly sampled Hoosiers.

.@StateHealthIN Commissioner Kris Box: Indiana will receive weekly shipments of #Remdesivir from federal government, based on number of ICU patients. The anti-SARS drug has reduced the length of #coronavirus hospital stays.

.@FSPH_IUPUI, before presenting results, notes that "while I don't expect it to vary wildly," this is just the first phase of a planned 4-phase study, With that:

1.7% tested positive
1.1% had antibodies, suggesting past infection

That translates to 186,000 Hoosiers infected by late April. That's 11 times the known infections at that time.

FSPH: death rate among estimated number infected = .58%. 44% of those infected believed to have never experienced symptoms.

People in household with infected person 12x more likely to be infected themselves. FSPH says that suggests social distancing contained the virus.

A caution from FSPH: those not yet infected are also the potential next wave of patients. State needs to stay vigilant.

Study also confirms higher risk among minorities.

Next round of FSPH testing June 3-7, with 5K more Hoosiers, to see how much further #coronavirus has spread. As with first round, don't call them, they'll call you, to get scientific sample. If you *are* selected, they urge you to participate.

Box says she believes Cass County has passed the peak of the pandemic.

State has added 161 ICU beds last 2 days, after gradually reducing the number of beds the last 2 1/2 weeks as infection curve flattened out. Box says she doesn't know where those addbacks are, but says the key metric she's watching is the number of hospitalized patients.

.@FSPH_IUPUI health policy chair Nir Menachemi: very slight chance of false positives in FSPH testing. Much more likely to have false negatives. Researchers are calculating margin of error.

Holcomb dress code today: jacket over Shelby County #INThisTogether T-shirt.

FSPH's Menachemi: no single data point can or should drive #reopen decisions. And staying closed forever isn't an option. So focus should be vigilance; preventive steps should be "doubled and tripled up."

Box: it's been "a little heartbreaking for me" to see photos of people in line or elsewhere, not wearing masks and not social distancing. FSPH's Paul Halvorson adds that people are most infectious right *before* showing symptoms.

FSPH random sample found zero cases in general population in the South Bend area. Menachemi says that doesn't mean no one's got the virus there (as ISDH dashboard would tell you); it says those cases were caught by conventional testing (symptoms, LTC). Sample didn't catch any.

Holcomb: FSPH study underscores our suspicions about where we were with virus. As everyone else on the panel has emphasized, he says Hoosiers need to stay vigilant, because the virus is "still roaming out there in the hills and hollers."

Menachemi: .58% death rate among infections is 6x seasonal flu, with a virus that's also a) more infectious and b) often leaves carriers without symptoms.

Halvorson: "Take #social distancing seriously. It's not 'wear a mask when I feel like it'...you need to wear it all the time. If you can work from home, you should. If you can avoid unnecessary trips, you should."

Box: "We're moving into a more dangerous phase," because more people will be back among the public.

Holcomb and Box: the catch-22 of testing people without symptoms is they might get the virus the next day. Focus remains on frontline workers and longterm care facilities, plus aggressive contract tracing when there's an outbreak.