Was Germany’s Lockdown successful?
Look at the graph: Initially, daily deaths accelerate. At the green point, they start decelerating, then recede, and phase out.
#Coronavirus #COVID-19
Look at the graph: Initially, daily deaths accelerate. At the green point, they start decelerating, then recede, and phase out.
#Coronavirus #COVID-19
LESSON 1: Has the Lockdown reduced deaths immediately?
Our Lockdown became effective on March 23, the blue line.
It had no immediate impact, of course. From the medical literature, there is a delay of 23 days between infection and death.
Our Lockdown became effective on March 23, the blue line.
It had no immediate impact, of course. From the medical literature, there is a delay of 23 days between infection and death.
LESSON 2: Do you see a marked fall in death rates after April 15?
April 15 is 23 days after the lockdown, where effects should have become visible.
But there are no effects. Deaths follow the usual epidemiological curve, the red line.
April 15 is 23 days after the lockdown, where effects should have become visible.
But there are no effects. Deaths follow the usual epidemiological curve, the red line.
LESSON 3: Has the lockdown triggered the deceleration at the “green point of hope”?
Emphatically not, because the deceleration on April 6 corresponds to infections that took place on March 14, long before the lockdown.
Emphatically not, because the deceleration on April 6 corresponds to infections that took place on March 14, long before the lockdown.
CONCLUSION
Germany’s lockdown came late. It was completely ineffective. The success of Germa-ny’s lockdown policy is mere propaganda.
Remark: The 23 days delay consists of 5 days incubation period plus 18 days from symptoms to death.
Germany’s lockdown came late. It was completely ineffective. The success of Germa-ny’s lockdown policy is mere propaganda.
Remark: The 23 days delay consists of 5 days incubation period plus 18 days from symptoms to death.
REFERENCES
Lauer, S. A. et al. (2020) doi.org/10.7326/M20-05…
Verity, R. et al. (2020) doi.org/10.1016/S1473-…
Lauer, S. A. et al. (2020) doi.org/10.7326/M20-05…
Verity, R. et al. (2020) doi.org/10.1016/S1473-…
