THREAD This is a great story by @technology on Xi's ambitions to turn $1.4 trillion "new infrastructure" program into a Chinese version of the "New Deal." It might also have some sweeping long-term implications for the Russian economy. My quick take 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ In this well-research article, @technology team (@Colum_M, @luluyilun, @byzhulin, @GaoYuan86, @pingroma) explain how China plans to make "new infrastructure" program (新型基础设施) into a cornerstone of its recovery effort after #COVID bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Not only will this program support growth and employment like the 2008-2009 infrastructure-heavy recovery plan did, but will also lay groundwork for China to leapfrog into what @wef calls industrial revolution 4.0 - and secure Beijing's global leadership in tech
4/ There are multiple steps in this $1.4 trillion plan (over 5 years) that are aimed at support for @Huawei, @AlibabaGroup &all through roll-out of 5G, investments in data centers across the country etc.
5/ These steps will boost competitive edge of @Huawei & @AlibabaGroup including in Russia&Central Asia, as these companies are moving aggressively into Eurasian markets and build partnerships with powerful local players like @sberbank (cloud business), @rdif_press, @megafonru
6/ With Russia willing to roll out 5G and adopt Chinese-style system of digital surveillance after @covid, the "new infrastructure" plan may bring China one step closer to cement its grip on digital economies in Eurasia, as I've argued in @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/cor…
7/ "New infrastructure" also entails some risks for the backbone of the Russian economy - the oil sector. The plan includes support for massive rollout of electric-vehicle charging stations, as NDRC's Wu Hao (伍浩) noted on April 20 xinhuanet.com/fortune/2020-0…
8/ Rapid growth of EV industry in China has been a constant focus of the Russian economic leadership, particularly @bank_of_russia. The concern is that long-term growth of EV in China will decrease demand for oil, affecting budget revenues, profits of @RosneftRu, @lukoilrus etc.
9/ Although the prospects of EV market globally & in China have been negatively affected by #COVID, China will likely maintain it's dominance. Investment into charging stations as part of "new infrastructure" package should help bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
11/ Chinese provinces have already started announcements on support for EV charging stations rollout. For example, see this pledge of Shanghai government to build 100,000 smart charging piles for EV over 3 years shanghai.gov.cn/nw2/nw2314/nw2…
12/ Silver lining for Russia: it's endowment of natural resources is so rich, that there will be long-term winners, not only losers - since nickel is one of the key components for li-ion batteries. See this excellent explainer by inimitable @MacroPoloChina macropolo.org/digital-projec…
13/ Russia has 8.6% share of the world's nickel reserves, and @Norilsk_Nickel, along with @valeglobal & @Glencore, is one of the key players in the global market with a huge focus on China.
14/ Bottomline: Beijing's recovery plan focused on "new infrastructure" will affect not only China & global tech race with the U.S., but many other markets, including Russia. If implemented, it will bring Beijing one step closer to position of dominance over Eurasia, a #PaxSinica
