Welcome to #AFGPanel! Since our last panel, we’ve seen the signing of a breakthrough political agreement by Afghan leaders @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE. 1/n
But we’ve also seen heartbreaking, horrific attacks on hospitals, funerals, mosques, and civilians across #Afghanistan & both the #ANDSF and the #Taliban are back on the offensive across the country. #AFGPanel 2/n
Anger over these developments & a growing sense of disappointment w/the US-driven peace process has been emanating from Kabul via social media & other channels. #AFGPanel 4/n
And worries over the spread and long-term impacts of #COVID19 continue to swirl within & around #Afghanistan. #AFGPanel 5/n
Today, I have the honor of hosting a discussion on #Afghanistan w/two wonderful panelists. We’ll discuss current events in the country and its history as a lens for understanding these events, along w/answering your questions. #AFGPanel 6/n
Our panelists, in order of tweeting appearance, are: @mariamamini, Afghan-American journalist & historian and creator of the fascinating @AfghanHistorian account (which you should all follow!) #AFGPanel 7/n
& @smithkabul, consultant and author of the best-selling book “The Dogs are Eating Them Now: Our War in #Afghanistan.” #AFGPanel 8/n
Before I turn it over to the panelists, here’s how we’ll be doing the discussion: each panelist will begin with an opening tweet thread—I’ll link to those in this thread. After their opening remarks, I’ll moderate a Q&A. #AFGPanel 9/n
PLEASE DM ME YOUR QUESTIONS so I can pose them to the panel in an ordered way. If you reply directly in this or the panelists’ threads, we may not respond. Also, please be civil & respectful in your Qs/comments. #AFGPanel 10/n
With that, I’ll ask @mariamamini to kick off the discussion with her opening thread! #AFGPanel 11/n
Many thanks to @smithkabul for those thoughts & concur on the need to listen--one of the major reasons I started this Twitter panel in the first place! #AFGPanel 15/n
I’d now like to open the Q&A portion of our discussion. We have a lot of great Qs that have come via DM over the past few days! I’ll post the Qs & link to the As in this thread. #AFGPanel 16/n
1st Q is for @smithkabul: You said you believe in peace negotiations as the best way ahead. What do you see as the biggest necessary compromises on the part of #Afghanistan’s govt & the #Taliban IOT get to a lasting peace agreement? #AFGPanel
2nd Q is for @mariamamini: History shows that #Afghanistan has often been in the midst of great power competition. What dynamics are you looking for in the peace process that may indicate how regional powers are thinking about their role in AFG going forward? #AFGPanel 18/n
3rd Q is for @smithkabul: What do you think is the risk of disintegration of #Afghanistan into two parts on the basis of ethnic divide? Also how do you see the neighboring central Asian countries and Iran's role in future Afghanistan? #AFGPanel 19/n
4th Q is for @mariamamini: There has been talk of modifying #Afghanistan’s constitution as a result of peace talks (e.g., to distribute power below the national level). What does the country’s history suggest of that idea? #AFGPanel 20/n
5th Q is for @smithkabul: Where does the Haqqani Network fit into the peace process? Are they generally opposed to a political settlement? What is the extent of their nexus with #ISIS-K? #AFGPanel 21/n
Last Q is for @mariamamini: What was the impetus for the @AfghanHistorian account? For those unfamiliar with or wishing to learn more about the country’s history, which guest authors would you most point them to? #AFGPanel 22/n
I can’t believe how fast that time went! This was a fascinating discussion & I *really* appreciate your attention & the time of our amazing panelists. Please join me in thanking them for their thoughts! #AFGPanel 23/n
And my sincere apologies if we didn’t get to your Q—there was a long queue, which again reflects the excellence of our panel’s works and experience. #AFGPanel 24/n
With that, I’ll close the panel. Please take care of yourselves/others & stay healthy! #AFGPanel 25/25
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As with its last report, this latest report on the #Taliban’s relationship with #alQaeda in #Afghanistan is 180 degrees out from the current US assessment. 1/n cbsnews.com/news/afghanist…
“According to the report presented to the UNSC [#alQaeda] has established ‘up to 8 new training camps in #Afghanistan, including four in Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan & Uruzgan Provinces, w\a new base to stockpile weaponry in the Panjshir Valley….’ 2/n
“…The terrorist organization also operates 5 madrasas - religious schools where it trains and indoctrinates children to become fighters - in the east & northeast of #Afghanistan, the reports said…” 3/n
I was recently passed a pre-publication copy of Feridun Sinirlioğlu's independent assessment of the situation in #Afghanistan, conducted for the @UN
I'll put some thoughts about it in this THREAD. 1/n
@UN (Since the report isn't out yet, I can't link to it, but you can find various news articles about it via Google, such as this one by @VOANews: ) 2/nvoanews.com/a/un-mandated-…
@UN @VOANews Overall, the assessment is clearly written & admirably forthright, especially given that its audiences are wide-ranging, from the #Taliban to those who hate the Taliban.
Its primary conclusion: "the status quo of int'l engagement is not working." 3/n
Today, the #Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an evaluation report of its contribution to the Resolute Support mission in #Afghanistan that *pulls no punches.*
I'll string together its primary findings in this THREAD. 1/n
Before the findings, a quick comment: the Dutch MFA produced this report b/c "Dutch contributions to missions under Article 100 of the Dutch Constitution are subject to an obligation to evaluate the deployment after it's been completed"
Today, the @JoeBiden admin released its National Security Strategy. I’ll summarize its major points & put some thoughts on #terrorism & #Afghanistan specifically in this THREAD. 1/n
@JoeBiden The strategy exists in 5 parts: (1) overview of the problem; (2) sources of US strength (solutions); (3) global priorities; (4) strategy by region; (5) conclusion.
Oddly, part 1 starts on page 6. Nitpicky, I know, but still weird--who counts the cover as page 1? 3/n
Today the @StateDept held a presser and there were questions about today's announcement of the "#Afghanistan Fund." I'll string those together in this THREAD. 1/n
Thread. In the immediate aftermath of #Afghanistan’s collapse, I attended a virtual event featuring Petraeus & Crocker on what went wrong. Their comments are best summarized as “things were bad until we got there, then they improved until we left & others effed it up.” 1/n
In this article, P4 adopts a similar tone. The “we” he uses is not a “royal we” that includes himself, but a we of “others.” The parts that he describes as having been done right are the parts that he did—aligning resources, getting HQs in place, etc. 2/n
Count the number of times he uses “I” & the associated context. Overwhelmingly these refer to policies that he recommended but weren’t adopted (& were the “right” ones), not mistakes that he personally made. 3/n