Dr. Jonathan Schroden Profile picture
19 years as a military operations analyst. Lots on AFG, IW, CT, SOF & the like. All views my own, RT not endorsement. Be droll, not a troll.
Arif Ammar Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
Aug 8 4 tweets 2 min read
Thread. In the immediate aftermath of #Afghanistan’s collapse, I attended a virtual event featuring Petraeus & Crocker on what went wrong. Their comments are best summarized as “things were bad until we got there, then they improved until we left & others effed it up.” 1/n In this article, P4 adopts a similar tone. The “we” he uses is not a “royal we” that includes himself, but a we of “others.” The parts that he describes as having been done right are the parts that he did—aligning resources, getting HQs in place, etc. 2/n
Aug 1 12 tweets 5 min read
As I think about the strike on #alQaeda’s Zawahiri, we know what the “finish” portion looked like: a drone strike in Kabul. What about the “find & fix” portions though? 1/n We don’t *know* anything about that yet, though surely the Biden admin will release details to keep this in the news cycle as the midterms approach, so we’ll learn more. Still possible to speculate on the possibilities now, though. 2/n
Aug 1 4 tweets 3 min read
Well, this is quite the development in #Afghanistan: the #Taliban spokesman has stated that the explosion in Kabul yesterday was the result of a US drone strike against #ISIS-K targets👇 I'm surprised the US would do this (& esp in Kabul) now, given ongoing discussions w/the #Taliban on a host of other issues. Suggests the US calculated the benefit of target removal to outweigh the costs w/the TB (eg in ongoing talks) for conducting the strike. 2/n
Jun 1 23 tweets 15 min read
Today, @SIGARHQ released its 12th lessons learned report, titled "Police in Conflict: Lessons from the US Experience in #Afghanistan

I'll summarize its findings & recommendations in this THREAD. 1/n @SIGARHQ (You can find the full report on @SIGARHQ's website here: sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslea…) 2/n
May 19 23 tweets 21 min read
Yesterday @SIGARHQ posted an interim version of its report titled "Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: An Assessment of the Factors That Led to Its Demise"

In this thread, I'll summarize the report's main findings & offer some thoughts. 1/n @SIGARHQ (You can find the full version of the interim report here: sigar.mil/pdf/evaluation…) 2/n
May 18 4 tweets 3 min read
The best part of #SOFIC is always the capability demonstration 😎

#SOF #SOFIC2022 #SOFIC2022
Mar 12 25 tweets 38 min read
A question it seems everyone is asking these days: “Why has #Russia’s military been so ineffective in #Ukraine?”

Some answers in this THREAD. 1/n (In case you’re wondering what qualifications I have to address this question—I teach a course on military power & effectiveness @ElliottSchoolGW. Also, this thread was inspired by @RisaBrooks12 excellent thread on her own work on this topic: ) 2/n
Nov 3, 2021 9 tweets 7 min read
I was asked this morning what kind of threat #ISIS-Khorasan poses to the #Taliban: Existential? Nuisance? Something in between? Some thoughts in this THREAD. 1/n First, @AmiraJadoon can correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the current attack numbers from #ISIS in #Afghanistan represent a slight uptick since the #Taliban took over, but are still well below the group’s peak a few years back. 2/n
Oct 14, 2021 31 tweets 42 min read
HOT OFF THE PRESSES! My team @CNA_org just finished a pair of reports looking at the #psychology of #disinformation. We sought to answer two main Qs: 1) How does disinfo work on your brain? 2) What, if anything, can #DOD do about it? Summary findings in this THREAD. 1/n @CNA_org The first report answers the first question: How does #disinformation work on your brain?

You can find the full version of the report here: cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/… 2/n
Oct 12, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read
Remarks on #Afghanistan from @PentagonPresSec's #DOD presser today in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/News/Transcrip… QUESTION: On #Afghanistan, is there been a decision yet on providing financial compensation of families of those civilians killed in the August 29th strike?

MR. KIRBY: I don't have an update for you on that today. 2/n
Oct 12, 2021 16 tweets 19 min read
JUST OUT! My team @CNA_org just completed a quick-look project – led by Alex Powell – looking at lessons from historical examples of #maritime #sabotage for #StrategicCompetition. I’ll summarize some key findings & implications in this THREAD. 1/n @CNA_org (You can find the full report on the @CNA_org website here: cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/…) 2/n Image
Sep 1, 2021 27 tweets 22 min read
Tonight begins my new course @ElliottSchoolGW: “Understanding U.S. Special Operations”

In it, we’ll learn what special ops/#SOF are & how these differ from conventional ops/forces; how US SOF came to be; how they’ve been used over time; & what major issues they face today. 1/n If you want to follow along at home, I’ll be posting key topics & readings in this THREAD.

Week 1 is course overview & class intros, so while you wait for substance, you can buy our main text (Oppose Any Foe by @MarkMoyar) & watch this cool #SOF vid😎 2/n
Aug 30, 2021 23 tweets 16 min read
I’ve seen lots of discussion lately about #Taliban-captured weapons in #Afghanistan, much of which is ill-informed. So, I’m going to discuss five myths about this topic in this THREAD. 1/n (Note: The format for this was inspired by this excellent “five myths about the #Taliban” article by @a_a_jackson that you should also read) 2/n

Aug 24, 2021 67 tweets 136 min read
Given recent events in #Afghanistan & my focus on that country since 2008, I’ve been engaging in a lot of professional reflection of late. I'm going to share some results of that in this (long) THREAD. 1/n To do this, I went back and re-read everything I’ve written publicly on #Afghanistan over the past two years, as well as a few pertinent older pieces. I’ll post links to these articles as I go. 2/n
Aug 14, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
A parable. 1/n There was a man, who developed a rash on his hand. It wasn’t debilitating, but he desired to be rid of it. So he went to a doctor.

The doctor prescribed a cream & told the man to apply it every day. 2/n
Aug 13, 2021 8 tweets 7 min read
I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"

Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*

2/n Image
Aug 12, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
As an analyst, I do my best to look at the available data & devise analytic frameworks to organize & make logical & transparent sense of it. This is, however, not math. The answers aren't firm. There are no scientific laws on which to rely. Much has to be assumed. 1/n I do my best to keep track of my assumptions, to revisit them, to test them, & to gauge the risk associated with them being wrong. In this case, I assumed the #ANDSF would recognize that its advantages were in defending the cities. That they could dig in around them. 2/n
Aug 12, 2021 105 tweets 27 min read
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans… MR. KIRBY: I have seen lots of press reporting this morning about assessments coming out of #Afghanistan. I know you're all interested in that, let me tell you, I am not going to talk specifically about intelligence assessments one way or the other... 2/n
Aug 11, 2021 49 tweets 34 min read
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans… @PentagonPresSec Q: The air strikes that the U.S. has done thus far over the past three or four weeks with some regularity, how much difference have those air strikes made on the ground, in terms of the battlefield? 2/n
Aug 10, 2021 69 tweets 54 min read
Comments on #Afghanistan by @PentagonPresSec from yesterday's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans… Q: You're aware I'm sure about reports over the weekend. With the #Taliban clearly rolling along at this point, does @SecDef believe that the US should increase the amount of airstrikes & support it's giving to the Afghans? 2/n
Jul 29, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
Comments on #Afghanistan by @PentagonPresSec in today's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans… @PentagonPresSec Q: On the SIVs, the flights. do you have any updates? They were supposed to come in on the 29th. Have they landed? Processing at Fort Lee? Anything? 2/n