Dr. Jonathan Schroden Profile picture
20 years as a military operations analyst. Lots on AFG, IW, CT, SOF & the like. All views my own, RT not endorsement. Be droll, not a troll.
Arif Ammar Profile picture Aziz Ur Rehman Profile picture 2 subscribed
Nov 20 21 tweets 5 min read
I was recently passed a pre-publication copy of Feridun Sinirlioğlu's independent assessment of the situation in #Afghanistan, conducted for the @UN

I'll put some thoughts about it in this THREAD. 1/n @UN (Since the report isn't out yet, I can't link to it, but you can find various news articles about it via Google, such as this one by @VOANews: ) 2/nvoanews.com/a/un-mandated-…
May 18 22 tweets 9 min read
Today, the #Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an evaluation report of its contribution to the Resolute Support mission in #Afghanistan that *pulls no punches.*

I'll string together its primary findings in this THREAD. 1/n Image (You can find the full report and an executive summary here: english.iob-evaluatie.nl/results/public…) 2/N
Oct 12, 2022 29 tweets 22 min read
Today, the @JoeBiden admin released its National Security Strategy. I’ll summarize its major points & put some thoughts on #terrorism & #Afghanistan specifically in this THREAD. 1/n @JoeBiden (You can find the full text of the document here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…) 2/n
Sep 15, 2022 78 tweets 59 min read
Today the @StateDept held a presser and there were questions about today's announcement of the "#Afghanistan Fund." I'll string those together in this THREAD. 1/n @StateDept (The link to the full presser is here: state.gov/briefings/depa…)

And here's a link to the announcement: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel… 2/n
Aug 8, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Thread. In the immediate aftermath of #Afghanistan’s collapse, I attended a virtual event featuring Petraeus & Crocker on what went wrong. Their comments are best summarized as “things were bad until we got there, then they improved until we left & others effed it up.” 1/n In this article, P4 adopts a similar tone. The “we” he uses is not a “royal we” that includes himself, but a we of “others.” The parts that he describes as having been done right are the parts that he did—aligning resources, getting HQs in place, etc. 2/n
Aug 1, 2022 12 tweets 5 min read
As I think about the strike on #alQaeda’s Zawahiri, we know what the “finish” portion looked like: a drone strike in Kabul. What about the “find & fix” portions though? 1/n We don’t *know* anything about that yet, though surely the Biden admin will release details to keep this in the news cycle as the midterms approach, so we’ll learn more. Still possible to speculate on the possibilities now, though. 2/n
Aug 1, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
Well, this is quite the development in #Afghanistan: the #Taliban spokesman has stated that the explosion in Kabul yesterday was the result of a US drone strike against #ISIS-K targets👇 I'm surprised the US would do this (& esp in Kabul) now, given ongoing discussions w/the #Taliban on a host of other issues. Suggests the US calculated the benefit of target removal to outweigh the costs w/the TB (eg in ongoing talks) for conducting the strike. 2/n
Jun 1, 2022 23 tweets 15 min read
Today, @SIGARHQ released its 12th lessons learned report, titled "Police in Conflict: Lessons from the US Experience in #Afghanistan

I'll summarize its findings & recommendations in this THREAD. 1/n @SIGARHQ (You can find the full report on @SIGARHQ's website here: sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslea…) 2/n
May 19, 2022 23 tweets 21 min read
Yesterday @SIGARHQ posted an interim version of its report titled "Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: An Assessment of the Factors That Led to Its Demise"

In this thread, I'll summarize the report's main findings & offer some thoughts. 1/n @SIGARHQ (You can find the full version of the interim report here: sigar.mil/pdf/evaluation…) 2/n
May 18, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
The best part of #SOFIC is always the capability demonstration 😎

#SOF #SOFIC2022 #SOFIC2022
Mar 12, 2022 25 tweets 38 min read
A question it seems everyone is asking these days: “Why has #Russia’s military been so ineffective in #Ukraine?”

Some answers in this THREAD. 1/n (In case you’re wondering what qualifications I have to address this question—I teach a course on military power & effectiveness @ElliottSchoolGW. Also, this thread was inspired by @RisaBrooks12 excellent thread on her own work on this topic: ) 2/n
Nov 3, 2021 9 tweets 7 min read
I was asked this morning what kind of threat #ISIS-Khorasan poses to the #Taliban: Existential? Nuisance? Something in between? Some thoughts in this THREAD. 1/n First, @AmiraJadoon can correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the current attack numbers from #ISIS in #Afghanistan represent a slight uptick since the #Taliban took over, but are still well below the group’s peak a few years back. 2/n
Oct 14, 2021 31 tweets 42 min read
HOT OFF THE PRESSES! My team @CNA_org just finished a pair of reports looking at the #psychology of #disinformation. We sought to answer two main Qs: 1) How does disinfo work on your brain? 2) What, if anything, can #DOD do about it? Summary findings in this THREAD. 1/n @CNA_org The first report answers the first question: How does #disinformation work on your brain?

You can find the full version of the report here: cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/… 2/n
Oct 12, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read
Remarks on #Afghanistan from @PentagonPresSec's #DOD presser today in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/News/Transcrip… QUESTION: On #Afghanistan, is there been a decision yet on providing financial compensation of families of those civilians killed in the August 29th strike?

MR. KIRBY: I don't have an update for you on that today. 2/n
Oct 12, 2021 16 tweets 19 min read
JUST OUT! My team @CNA_org just completed a quick-look project – led by Alex Powell – looking at lessons from historical examples of #maritime #sabotage for #StrategicCompetition. I’ll summarize some key findings & implications in this THREAD. 1/n @CNA_org (You can find the full report on the @CNA_org website here: cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/…) 2/n Image
Sep 1, 2021 27 tweets 22 min read
Tonight begins my new course @ElliottSchoolGW: “Understanding U.S. Special Operations”

In it, we’ll learn what special ops/#SOF are & how these differ from conventional ops/forces; how US SOF came to be; how they’ve been used over time; & what major issues they face today. 1/n If you want to follow along at home, I’ll be posting key topics & readings in this THREAD.

Week 1 is course overview & class intros, so while you wait for substance, you can buy our main text (Oppose Any Foe by @MarkMoyar) & watch this cool #SOF vid😎 2/n
Aug 30, 2021 23 tweets 16 min read
I’ve seen lots of discussion lately about #Taliban-captured weapons in #Afghanistan, much of which is ill-informed. So, I’m going to discuss five myths about this topic in this THREAD. 1/n (Note: The format for this was inspired by this excellent “five myths about the #Taliban” article by @a_a_jackson that you should also read) 2/n

Aug 24, 2021 67 tweets 136 min read
Given recent events in #Afghanistan & my focus on that country since 2008, I’ve been engaging in a lot of professional reflection of late. I'm going to share some results of that in this (long) THREAD. 1/n To do this, I went back and re-read everything I’ve written publicly on #Afghanistan over the past two years, as well as a few pertinent older pieces. I’ll post links to these articles as I go. 2/n
Aug 14, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
A parable. 1/n There was a man, who developed a rash on his hand. It wasn’t debilitating, but he desired to be rid of it. So he went to a doctor.

The doctor prescribed a cream & told the man to apply it every day. 2/n
Aug 13, 2021 8 tweets 7 min read
I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"

Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*

2/n Image
Aug 12, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
As an analyst, I do my best to look at the available data & devise analytic frameworks to organize & make logical & transparent sense of it. This is, however, not math. The answers aren't firm. There are no scientific laws on which to rely. Much has to be assumed. 1/n I do my best to keep track of my assumptions, to revisit them, to test them, & to gauge the risk associated with them being wrong. In this case, I assumed the #ANDSF would recognize that its advantages were in defending the cities. That they could dig in around them. 2/n