1. As we approach the Goverment lowest credibility point in the #Cummings saga, I'd like to pen a few tweets on the Alan Turing of our time.
Historians will look back and acknowledge a man who saved 100,000s yet whose character was deliberately assassinated to protect shysters.
Historians will look back and acknowledge a man who saved 100,000s yet whose character was deliberately assassinated to protect shysters.
2. Many of you here will know him, but in the outside world, at best, they know the lurid and deliberately exaggerated Press stories. So we have a job to do. Recognise and tell the true heroic story of Prof @neil_ferguson
Let me point some things out.
Let me point some things out.
3. If you don't know Prof Neil, the summary version is that at the start of #COVID19, he was the primary modeller on the NERVTAG group, the science team specialising in transmissible viruses which advised SAGE, the better known UKGov main science advisory group.
4. Initially, back in March Neil was wrongly attacked first by the left. They erroneously accused his models of justifying UKGov delay, AND they said mistakes were made in applying Influenza models to a #coronavirus.
On both they were wrong. Though later the right were worse.
On both they were wrong. Though later the right were worse.
5. I read all NERVTAG meeting minutes in March, and all since. There was a gap (see appendix) but the science is beyond reproach, warnings were clear. Far from making mistakes, all the models transparently showed assumptions and risks and were clear on those implications.
6. As is now broadly understood, UK Gov did almost nothing about #coronavirus in the 2 months they had from the initial warning on Jan 9th to the circus "containment stage" fiasco of mid March. Their Herd Immunity "strategy" needed no prep.
Have you asked. What changed in March?
Have you asked. What changed in March?
7. The answer is Neil Ferguson.
And 430,000 of us owe him our lives. Chronic illness or older? Probably you.
What Neil did, finally to change our strategy of "slowly move through the population" (Johnson on video quote) was to show the 500,000 deaths that would cause.
And 430,000 of us owe him our lives. Chronic illness or older? Probably you.
What Neil did, finally to change our strategy of "slowly move through the population" (Johnson on video quote) was to show the 500,000 deaths that would cause.
8.His model never claimed to be perfect for a virus we don't understand now and then understood less. He took an influenza model adapted for covid (see appendix 2)
Wasn't perfect, but close enough.
Test this yourself for any idiot on the right who says it was exaggerated...
Wasn't perfect, but close enough.
Test this yourself for any idiot on the right who says it was exaggerated...
9. Open a calculator.
China death rate 2.5%
UK population ~ 65 million
=? Dead
Yep. 1.65m. Some, including me, worried that Neil's worst case understated the risk. Which of course is why you model these things and don't just multiply or even worse let your bias overrule brain.
China death rate 2.5%
UK population ~ 65 million
=? Dead
Yep. 1.65m. Some, including me, worried that Neil's worst case understated the risk. Which of course is why you model these things and don't just multiply or even worse let your bias overrule brain.
10. Many more things came from that team, including the suppression approach that has recovered #Johnson's awful mistake that risked KILLING HALF A MILLION
It should not have been 70,000, without Neil that other 430,000 would have died
A national hero?
Overnight disgraced
It should not have been 70,000, without Neil that other 430,000 would have died
A national hero?
Overnight disgraced
11. Like #cummings Neil breached quarantine. Unlike "Dom" he was no serial offender, and didn't lie.
The reason he is Alan Turing is that also unlike Cummings he was cast out by his bosses then assassinated with gutter press innuendo. sarcastic example⏬
The reason he is Alan Turing is that also unlike Cummings he was cast out by his bosses then assassinated with gutter press innuendo. sarcastic example⏬
12. So why did our Government and Press collude to destroy a national hero. Has anyone saved so many lives?
Gaslighting. Core to UKGov and Trump is a PR strategy to rewrite history in the fly.
Take credit for others, deny or shift mistakes.
Neil ⏩ a major problem to silence.
Gaslighting. Core to UKGov and Trump is a PR strategy to rewrite history in the fly.
Take credit for others, deny or shift mistakes.
Neil ⏩ a major problem to silence.
13. Due to gross neglience Johnson risked 500,000 deaths. With a South Korea approach maybe 1000 would have died without ever the need for lockdown.
GASLIGHT.
REWRITE HISTORY
Johnson is now the hero who prevented 500,000 deaths with a lockdown.
Who could challenge that?
GASLIGHT.
REWRITE HISTORY
Johnson is now the hero who prevented 500,000 deaths with a lockdown.
Who could challenge that?
14. Inquiries and Trials must come. The key witness will be the man who can show the Iies. Prof Neil Ferguson.
Defence will point at the press stories and claim he's taking revenge.
Or could have.
Has #Cummings special treatment undermined this? If so one good thing then 😉👍
Defence will point at the press stories and claim he's taking revenge.
Or could have.
Has #Cummings special treatment undermined this? If so one good thing then 😉👍
Appendix 1. Gaps.
NERVTAG had a biggie. It excluded community medicine and the now well understood sub-speciality, contact tracing.
The Scientists helped choose NERVTAG members, but final decisions were with the dept health, CMO/CSO and secretary of state, Hancock.
NERVTAG had a biggie. It excluded community medicine and the now well understood sub-speciality, contact tracing.
The Scientists helped choose NERVTAG members, but final decisions were with the dept health, CMO/CSO and secretary of state, Hancock.
None of this relates to Neil or his models. But one of the early left attacks was they insufficiently allowed for contact tracing. This then could be an excuse for Hancock's choice of advisers.
Bunkum.
Read report 9. Very clearly accounts for this area in china actions.
Bunkum.
Read report 9. Very clearly accounts for this area in china actions.
Appendix 2. One of the reasons so many could have died is it seems UKGov badly adapted our Influenza strategy early on. Someone made clever but uniformed assumptions and decided to keep speed of vaccine development in.
No scientist would have done that. So. Politician? Adviser?
No scientist would have done that. So. Politician? Adviser?
They were NOT misled by Neil and NERVTAG who clearly pointed out the danger in assumptions about a new virus. A subtle difference, something is based on influenza but adapted vs an unchanged influenza strategy is science
Just the sort of difference Politicians exploit if accused
Just the sort of difference Politicians exploit if accused
Appendix 3.
I've spoken of the left. But the lie that it's lockdown or the economy started on the right
You know it's a false argument, not true. The economy works on confident. How does the economy react if we time lockdown carelessly driving 10x deaths?
Calculator: 65m x 2.5%
I've spoken of the left. But the lie that it's lockdown or the economy started on the right
You know it's a false argument, not true. The economy works on confident. How does the economy react if we time lockdown carelessly driving 10x deaths?
Calculator: 65m x 2.5%
