Quick thoughts on EU Council's adopted conclusions highlighting its vision for the #Afghanistan peace process and future EU support for the country.
Long Thread 🤫
Long Thread 🤫
1: The @EuinAfghanistan has been increasingly vocal regarding the US-monopolised talks but this is perhaps the 1st time they espoused a clear alternative framework to rival that of the US. It is a different yet bold vision for intra-AFG talks albeit with little chance of success.
2: Interestingly, the EU uses the word 'principled' to describe its approach, as if to distinguish it from the US approach which could perhaps be contrasted as being too expedient or Machiavellian or realpolitik-based depending on what connotations you want to invoke.
3: In terms of eliciting desired behavior, while the US has focused on the more powerful 'conditions-based' mechanism to influence TB, the EU wields other levers including future aid, sanctions removal and acceptance of future govt by intl community to influence actors' behavior.
4: Substantively, the EU calls on all sides, including TB, to immediately begin the intra-AFG talks. Also states that results of this process must protect the gains of post-2001 era, especially the constitutional order, it's democratic institutions, humans rights & minorities.
5: It calls for participation of women in the peace process by relying on UNSC resolution 1325.
Calls on TB to bring violence down to an acceptable level until a full-fledged ceasefire enters into force.
Calls on TB to bring violence down to an acceptable level until a full-fledged ceasefire enters into force.
6: Admonishes both sides for continued civilian casualties.
It mentioned Dashte Barchi hospital in the context of 'incidents of violence against civilians by both parties'.
Does that mean EU holds TB responsible for that massacre?
It mentioned Dashte Barchi hospital in the context of 'incidents of violence against civilians by both parties'.
Does that mean EU holds TB responsible for that massacre?
7: It also states that the AFG govt has initiated prisoner release 'outside it's obligations'. While that it true, it is equally true that the TB consented to intra-AFG talks that would be preceded by prisoner release. So not sure what the EU hopes to achieve with such language.
8: Noteworthy that UNSC resolution 2513, substantially relied on by EU in this document 'calls on' govt and TB to pursue confidence building measures conducive to start of intra-AFG talks. 
9: This 👇🏽 is perhaps the most blunt statement on behavior-based aid for future AFG.
Taliban commitment to above and their cooperation will determine how much EU support the country receives in the future
Taliban commitment to above and their cooperation will determine how much EU support the country receives in the future
10: At Para 9 there is an even longer list of actions the future AFG govt will need to take & norms it needs to preserve to ensure continued EU aid. Even includes the demand for stemming the flow of migration to Europe!
List enumeration for EU-member buy-ins or genuine demands?
List enumeration for EU-member buy-ins or genuine demands?
11: Worth noting that the EU doesn't just call on the Taliban to respect these core values. It contains a clear warning to the current govt that EU support is not a given & could be easily withdrawn if the actors begin sacrificing core values & interests for factional gains.
12: EU, relying on UNSC resolution 2513, makes it very clear to Taliban that the restoration of the Islamic Emirate is a 'redline' for the international community as highlighted in this resolution.
13: Then comes another very significant claim essentially putting TB on watch that EU will only support sanctions relief contingent on TB compliance in terms of violence reduction, advancement of inta-AFG talks and genuine commitment to peace etc.
14: Worth noting that the EU approach is in fact support by the language of the UN resolution 👇🏽
15: However, it might not necessarily be supported by the US-TB Agreement. That agreement highlights that the process will begin with intra-Afghan talks BUT it also stipulates a deadline for sanctions removal.
16: Deadline for UN sanctions removal was on the 29th of May. Same day as this policy paper was issued!
How will the TB react? I assume the deadlines were inserted on their insistence. Will they view this as a breach of obligation by US? Impact on TB internal support for deal?
How will the TB react? I assume the deadlines were inserted on their insistence. Will they view this as a breach of obligation by US? Impact on TB internal support for deal?
17: More importantly, the resolution imposed conditions, for sanctions removal, on the Taliban that are not contained in the original agreement.
This might trigger next phase of hurdles for the tortious #Afghanistan peace process.
This might trigger next phase of hurdles for the tortious #Afghanistan peace process.
18: Overall, while I believe the EU approach is bold, it is unlikely to succeed.
The reason being, that the core EU demands for post-negotiation framework invoke connotations that are seen as the antithesis of what the Taliban stand for.
The reason being, that the core EU demands for post-negotiation framework invoke connotations that are seen as the antithesis of what the Taliban stand for.
19: The Taliban risk a break from within if they accept these demands in the manner they are currently worded.
The TB leadership would not want to be seen as forfeiting their Islamic credentials, and will seek to demolish anything that represents western democratic norms.
The TB leadership would not want to be seen as forfeiting their Islamic credentials, and will seek to demolish anything that represents western democratic norms.
20: If the EU wants to incorporate these values then their best chance would be to formulate these same demands in a manner that they represent core Islamic governance norms. This requires little investment as most good governance values are also ingrained in Islamic sources.
Looks like Taliban have officially responded to the EU approach 👇🏽
Essentially they rebuke EU by stating that TB will not interfere in internal affairs of other states and other states should not interfere in #Afghanistan's internal matters.
Essentially they rebuke EU by stating that TB will not interfere in internal affairs of other states and other states should not interfere in #Afghanistan's internal matters.
The Afghan govt has also weighed in on the EU's new framework, largely welcoming this approach.
