Thread by @5hoab

My analysis of the lockdown strategy in the developing world for #Covid19.
(Thread)

I have been of the view, since the beginning that lockdowns will not work in the developing world and will cause more damage than good.

Let’s look at the developing countries of the world.

🇮🇳 India

❌ Every week, daily cases rising despite months of lockdown.
❌ Millions of migrant workers became unemployed and were displaced.
❌ Economy heading towards another recession.
❌ Criminal justice system collapsing.
❌ Govt had to ease lockdown!

🇵🇰Pakistan

❌ Cases rising rapidly.
❌ Health system nearing collapse.
❌ Lockdowns eased as it can’t be afforded anymore.
❌Economy wrecked.
❌40% face multidimensional poverty.

🇧🇩 Bangladesh

❌ Cases surging rapidly despise lockdown.
❌ Factory workers facing poverty and hunger.
❌ Govt easing lockdown despite record cases and deaths.
✅ Economy in better shape compared to the world with a forecast of 6% growth.

🇮🇷 Iran

❌ Massive second peak after ease of lockdown; bigger than the first one.
❌ Further lockdown not imposed.
❌ Economy in a bad shape.

🇧🇷 Brazil

❌Rapidly rising cases, worst in the world.
❌ Govt accepts defeat and easing lockdown despite record cases and deaths.
❌ Economic collapse looms.

🇲🇽 Mexico

❌ Cases rising rapidly despite lockdown.
❌ Govt easing lockdown despite rising cases.
❌ Exonomy facing massive recession.

🇳🇬 Nigeria

❌ Cases continue to rise.
❌ Govt opening lockdown despite no sign of flattening of curve.
❌ Economy facing 9% recession.

🇿🇦 South Africa

❌ Almosy exponential rise in cases.
❌ No flattening of curve but still easing lockdown.
❌ 4.5% shrinkage of economy predicted.

🇪🇬 Egypt

❌ Rising cases but lockdown scraped due to economic fears.

🇵🇪 Peru

Same story

So all these countries went through months of lockdowns for no benefit. Instead their economies are wrecked and poverty, hunger, malnutrition and famines loom large.

I have some questions for you now.

✳️ Who is responsible for the massive rise in world poverty due to these irrational lockdowns without any scientific evidence?

✳️ Who is responsible for the millions who will die due to rising infant and maternal mortality?

✳️ Who is responsible for the world hunger, malnutrition and famines that threatens millions in the developing world?

While I remain skeptic of the risk benefit analysis of strict lockdowns in the developed world and much rather prefer the more balanced approach of Sweden, it was clear from day one that it was an extremely damaging idea for the developing world.

For lockdowns to flatten the curve, sustained and coordinated social distancing is needed from the whole population & the lack of education and awareness means people in developing world will not follow rules & lockdowns are likely to fail.

Moreover, given the fragile economies, countries in the developing world are unlikely to take the hit from the strict lockdowns and safeguard their populations from the devastating consequences. This makes the risk benefit equation tilt decisively against strict lockdowns.

Now I want to ask you, who is responsible for this humanitarian crisis in the developing world that has been made many times worse by these irrational and unscientific policies of lockdowns.

❌ Is the WHO responsible which madly recommended blanket lockdowns all over the world without any scientific evidence?
❌ Are the Govts of these countries responsible who imposed forced lockdowns without any rational thinking?

❌ Are those panicked and afraid rich people responsible who demanded lockdowns due to fears of their own lives?
❌ What would you call those people who are still demanding more lockdowns in the developing world?

I will wait for your answers.
(Thread ends)

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