1. It's been frustrating to witness events unfold entirely as some predicted. My heart goes out to all those who've lost loved ones in the #COVID19 pandemic & those who are still suffering with illness.
2. In this March 2nd piece I warned a lethal pandemic was inevitable, the illness would not be mild, immunity would be uncertain, and if we didn't act quickly we'd be trapped with a high infection rate and a broken economy.
freemarketconservatives.org/the-government…
freemarketconservatives.org/the-government…
3. We've made all the wrong choices and ended up exactly where I'd feared. So what now? It's clear some governments have given up. Lockdown is too hard. Test, track, isolate is too hard. The economic pain is too severe. They plan to let the virus run through their populations.
4. This is folly for a number of reasons. It is abundantly clear #Covid_19 is not mild. This piece by @edyong209 illustrates the challenge now facing many people. Once again I say we have no idea what the long term consequences of this disease will be.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
5. Governments are taking a huge gamble assuming it will not cause long term harm. My guess based on studying research into SARS patients is that 20% - 30% of people infected by the #SARS_CoV_2 virus will suffer medium to long term complications. This is a sad human toll.
6. But there will also be an economic cost & an additional burden on the healthcare systems of countries that lose control of transmission. Governments & employers need to budget and plan for this. Individuals looking for support might find this useful:
c19recoveryawareness.com/support
c19recoveryawareness.com/support
7. Summer is going to lull some people into a false sense of security. Iran is already seeing a second wave, so it seems transmission isn't affected by warm weather. However, experience of other respiratory viruses suggests #SARS_CoV_2 might lose some virulence over summer.
8. We should be using this time to prepare for winter. That means doing our best to reduce transmission, building hospital capacity & making sure our health system is properly prepared and equipped.
9. The UK government had time to prepare for the first wave. It squandered the opportunity. We must make sure that doesn't happen again. There are growing calls for a public inquiry to enable us to hold wrongdoers to account and learn from past mistakes.
bmj.com/content/369/bm…
bmj.com/content/369/bm…
10. I'm worried the government still refuses to admit it has done anything wrong. Here is Matt Hancock today telling a demonstrable lie.
11. And here is Boris Johnson claiming he is proud of the government's record.
12. Until the government is prepared to admit its mistakes, it cannot learn from them. We cannot propagandise our way out of this pandemic. The virus isn't interested in how well you play to your base. Two things will get us out of this crisis: honesty and science.
13. We need to be honest and say that things can't go back to the way they were until the threat has passed. This means moving out of denial into creativity and innovation.
freemarketconservatives.org/getting-throug…
freemarketconservatives.org/getting-throug…
14. It also means being honest about how and why we're deploying resources. I'm seeing a great deal of public money being squandered on the same old names. Companies previously associated with failure. Ministers are throwing money at the problem, hoping it will just go away.
15. Rather than seeking to properly inform themselves and deploying resources effectively. I've given up hoping government will solve this crisis for us, and applied some of the trusted analytical tools I used as a consultant to crunch the problem.
17. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and leading a syndicate of investors who are supporting @Ligandal as it develops its solution and closes a bigger funding round. We are a concerned group of individuals doing what we can to help find a way out of this crisis.
18. I'm very aware not everyone can afford to make such investments, particularly at this time, but if you want to help, Ligandal is currently running a crowdfunder to contribute to the costs of its research.
19. I'm confident in Ligandal's approach, but whether it's this specific technology or another, science is our only way out of this crisis. Until then, we need to use our ingenuity and creativity to minimise transmission. We need to support those who've lost loved ones.
20. We need to help those struggling with the long term consequences of the disease and we need to ensure there is financial support for those dealing with the hardship caused by the faltering economy.
21. There are those who will seek to use this crisis to divide us. To gain political advantage. To make money. We must not pander to them. This crisis has the potential to bring out the very worst of humanity or the very best.
22. It is only by staying true to ourselves, nurturing good, helping others and working together in the common interest that we will get through this.
