Thread by @pmdfoster

NEW: So. With less than *six months* to go before #brexit and the imposition of a full-fat customs border in UK, the government has STILL not published it's 'Border Operating Model' - how can that be? What does it mean? My latest 1/thread

ft.com/content/7efb87…

I took a trip to Dover to see Tim Reardon of @Port_of_Dover to see how it might work. Two things are clear - the checks can’t happen at Dover (or @Eurotunnel) because no space. Also the speed/volumes make it impossible. (Here’s pic from White Cliffs)/2

@Port_of_Dover @Eurotunnel The issue as Mr Reardon points out is that Dover/Eurotunnel is a 'river' of traffic. Up to 10,000 trucks a day, "rolling on, rolling off" ferries and trains, circulating thru UK and back to Continent...all of which needs to do customs, safety & security etc. 200m new 'checks' /3

@Port_of_Dover @Eurotunnel So how the hell is that going to work? Well, first thing to grasp is that this is a huge step-change - til now almost all freight entering UK is unaccompanied. It can sit and wait for clearance. But ro-ro can't. Or it will stop ro-roing! (Remember @DominicRaab Dover epiphany!)/4

So if checks can't be at Dover/Folkestone Eurotunnel (no time, no space) but @michaelgove wants 'full-fat' border as announced in Feb the checks will have to be away from port - at inspections sites (Ashford, Stop 24, we hear) and factories/warehouses /5

gov.uk/government/new…

@michaelgove .@michaelgove hinted as much in his meeting with industry last Feb, but we don't know how this will work because govt still hasn't published it's plan. But we DO know how it will work on the French side - becuase they have a system in place SI Brexit. /6

trans.info/en/new-customs…

It seems pretty mad the UK doesn't have an equivalent plan (industry recommended UK just takes a licence from French system that works) but politics has made #brexit such a moveable feast it seems to have been impossible. The plan was due March, then #coronavirus hit. /7

But is is clear in UK draft FTA the UK wants a free-flowing model.

It has a 'ro-ro' plan and (Chapter 20) it clearly wants mutual recognition of trucking permits. ALL of which will need a deal, of course. We'll come to what happens in a 'no deal' later./8

So in essence, the trucks keep moving and the checks take place (locations and modalities tbc) away from the ports. All sorted, right?

Well. In theory. But for it all to work, all the trucks need to show up at Dover/Folkestone Calais/Dunkirk with correct paperwork..../9

In the French system you do 'paperwork' online and get a barcode that marries the lorry to the goods at check-in.

And as Tim Reardon points out, there is market incentive to make that happen -if UK exporters want VAT refunds, EU importers want to place goods on market. BUT.../10

As Road Haulage Assoc boss Richard Burnett @RHARichardB says..this is easier said than done: “If you are a business grappling with this for the first time and you don’t have the right paperwork, are you going to stop trading — or will you take a risk and head to the port?” /11

@RHARichardB So in essence, as John Keefe of @Eurotunnel owner @GetlinkGroup says, the big issue is really one of business preparedness - can the 150,000 UK companies that have had almost 'zero' paperwork shift overnight to this new system (which hasn't yet been published!) It's a huge ask/12

@RHARichardB @Eurotunnel @GetlinkGroup That's why (see threads passim) there is all the fuss about the 50,000 customs clearance agents (or lack thereof) who might be able to oil those wheels - tho business will still need to check their work. /13

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1265187793044635648?s=20

@RHARichardB @Eurotunnel @GetlinkGroup .@RHARichardB wrote to govt in March asking for an extension. He got a reply from @PennyMordaunt saying 'no' and then wrote back last week saying (I paraphrase) "seriously?" He said there was “too little time” to prepare and lack of "essential practical information" /14

Now Mr Burnett @RHARichardB is not trying to 'stop #Brexit' (that's happened already) and is clear to Ms Morduant @PennyMordaunt that he and his members will do his very best, but have heart!

Government says business has to "prepare" but for for what?????? /15

Will there be a deal at all? Will it have an NZ vet agreement, or other 'easements' to simplify declarations? Will there be tariffs? Or some agri tariffs as reported over weekend? Who is paying for the paperwork? And the training needed? /16

Government might want to blame business, but just look at how No.10 and the NHS Procurement have coped with #Coronavirus - procurement, planning, management. This stuff can't just happen overnight. These forms aren't that simple - see @BIFA Robert Keen letter to @hilarybennmp/17

@BIFA @hilarybennmp When @michaelgove was asked about all this by @hilarybennmp his reply was (I paraphase, not unfairly I hope, 'lobbyists will be lobbyists')...see for yourself below. But in my experience these fears are from people who just want it to work. They are not saboteurs. Au contraire/18

@BIFA @hilarybennmp @michaelgove They are genuinely fretful about what might happen - in a 'no deal' perhaps there will be a deal to keep trucks moving, but it's likely to be quite a relative term. UK will fall back on ECMT permits regime and last time, even with enhancements, permits were 000s short /19

@BIFA @hilarybennmp @michaelgove In the end the UK (whih has 38,000 trucks with licences for EU) ended up with 1,668 annual permits plus 5040 monthly permits, per RHA. The EU had some contingency plans to allow for few months - tho those are now withdrawn. We'll see if they come back. /20

@BIFA @hilarybennmp @michaelgove But in summary, the clock is ticking. Tickety, tickety tock.

This is about management, not ideology and speaks to the need for a deal and some kind of implementation phase which (lest we forget) is what we are burning through now holding stalemated negotiations. Sigh. ENDS