Thread by @anandMenon1

Morning. Guess what? We've got another new report for your delectation out today. 🥳🥳🥳 You can find The Brexit Negotiations: A Stocktake here THREAD ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

Thanks to @CSBarnard24 @MeredithCrowle1 @drsarah_hall @jillongovt and @jdportes who wrote it. And in record time to boot.

Anyway, it pretty much does what it says on the tin and takes stock of where we've got to in the negotiations and what might transpire down the line.

The 4th round of Brexit negotiations ended last Friday. Michel Barnier could not have been clearer or more obviously unhappy. ‘There has been no significant progress,’ he stated, before going on to accuse the British Government of backsliding on commitments made.

Barnier also introduced a new deadline for the talks: 31 October David Frost told Parliament that he was targeting end-September, to give businesses time to prepare for new trading arrangements. So less than five months to conclude the negotiations which started in early March.

Stumbling blocks are level playing field provisions, fisheries and governance. On LPF it is not true that the EU offered a Canada style deal from the start and only added LPF demands later.

A compromise may be possible on environmental and social standards. The UK may accept non-regression clauses as EU proposing in their negotiating mandate. Harder to see agreement on state aid

On fishing, the EU hardened its stance in its final negotiating mandate but the UK will not concede anything like the status quo

Finally on governance, the EU is looking for a comprehensive association agreement with a single overarching governance process. The UK wants a freestanding trade agreement and then a number of separate agreements, all with their own governance arrangements

UK has argued that its approach is simply to follow precedent. But it has gone beyond precedent and is attempting to cherry pick elements of the single market eg trade facilitation provisions, and mutual recognition of professional qualifications

UK ministers have suggested sacrificing “zero tariff, zero quota” to open way to a deal without LPF provisions. The EU has made clear that negotiating tariffs line by line is much more time-consuming exercise and does not accept that this would entirely remove their LPF

Hard to see how a deal will be agreed by the end of 2020. The fundamental issue is the incompatible preferences of the two sides.

And time is short. Original transition period - 21 months from 31 March 2019. Now just 8 months. Via video rather than face-to-face. A decision must be taken on extension by 30 June 2020. It is far from certain a legal basis for post 30 June extension could be found.

Negotiations to date at technical level. No involvement of UK politicians. WA made provision for a high-level conference to take stock in June. Those talks could open more political space for negotiations – like the prime minister’s meeting with Leo Varadkar last year

A no trade deal outcome seems as likely as it ever has. The political implications of a no deal outcome threaten to be every bit as significant as its economic fallout. On this cf @jdportes and I today guce.huffingtonpost.co.uk/copyConsent?se…

Even in the event of a deal, both for GB-EU trade and trade between GB and NI, the government needs to give further urgent, clear guidance on what businesses need to do.

The econ impact of leaving EU with no deal , to trade with the EU on WTO terms would be serious – and hit businesses who will just have seen the furlough scheme end and will be in a precarious position as they recover (hopefully) from the worst impacts of the pandemic

Our view is that, on balance, the pandemic probably does make the economic risks of exiting transition in January 2020 without a trade deal larger, but the uncertainties are extremely large.

Reforming immigration sys in under a year hugely challenging. Will be limited capacity within the Home Office to explain the operation of the new system to employers, potential migrants etc before it is introduced in Jan 2021. Real danger of confusion and disruption.

There is a significant chance that the new system will simply not be ready or functional,
The risks here are not just short-term disruption as the new system beds in, but the reputational risk for the UK.

On NI, UK apaper in May set out how it intends to implement the Protocol. But some areas remain contentious. NI business responded to the paper with list of more than 60 unresolved questions.

Implementing the Protocol will require goodwill and flexibility on both sides, even in the event of the failure of the wider UK-EU negotiations on the future relationship,

The clock is ticking. We are at the mid-point between the start of the negotiations at the beginning of March and the autumn target

Many on UK side think that member state pressure will lead to a softening of the EU position. But while Brexit is prob still in 2nd place in UK priorities, it has fallen further down EU list. Prospects for a deal within the timescale do not look bright.

That's just a summary written in haste. You'd be much better off reading the report. ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…