Our @UKandEU report, on future of the EU, is OUT TODAY. We've not devoted as much time as we should to EU after Brexit. Here’s a THREAD for those of you too lazy to read it (or isolated and bored or, you know, short of paper....) … ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… 1/24 
First, let me thank the authors – all young researchers who you should follow: @SophiaRussack, @LukasObholzer, @matt_bevington, @JMieral, @J_Greubel, @GeorginaEWright, @LScazzieri, @PauLamGon, @ilketoygur, @nat_styczynska, @pbergsen, @Giadina_1988, @VeghZsuzsusanna… 2.24
…Tuomas Iso-Markku, Hanno Degner, @juliamagntorn, @DrBrendanMoore, @KatjaSwider, @Josephine_HAR, @armida_lm & @nmep20. Special thanks to @matt_bevington for putting the report together. For the record, I hate young people. 3/24
We start with the Commission and @SophiaRussack. argues both long-term trends and @vonderleyen’s nomination by the heads of state have weakened the relative position of the Commission. Her restructured College might help, but it still has potential structural weaknesses. 4/24
The flip side of this, as @LukasObholzer argues is that of @vonderleyen’s weak position may mean the EP might in fact be strengthened in future, with a renewed #Spitzenkandidaten system and potentially the right of legislative initiative. (A stronger EP. Yippee… 🙄) 5/24
One reason why the Commission has been weakened is increased prominence of the European Council of late. But @matt_bevington argues that there are structural factors, not least time, which will limit the ability of EU leaders to maintain this 6/24
On the Court of Justice of the EU, @JMieral argues that it is becoming an increasingly prominent actor as it fills legislative gaps not just in relation to internal EU law but its external activities as well. However it faces capacity issues. Cases have trebled since 2008. 7/24
Turning to member states. On Germany, @J_Greubel argues the breakdown of the domestic consensus on the EU has been crucial. Merkel has pursued a largely ad hoc approach to EU policy. And weakness of the F-G relationship has been fundmantal to problems EU faces. 8/24
Speaking of which @GeorginaEWright explains that Macron has struggled to build lasting coalitions with other member states. It is not so much his ideas but his approach that have angered some EU capitals. 9/24
On Italy, @LScazzieri warns it has shifted from one of most pro-EU to one of most Eurosceptic in the bloc over the past decade. The potential remains for a Salvini-led League government in the near future, which would create inevitable conflict with the EU institutions. 10/24
On Spain, @PauLamGon & @ilketoygur argue that rarely has the country had such an opportunity to punch its weight in the EU, with figures such as @JosepBorrellF and @IratxeGarper in key positions. It remains to be seen if Spain’s coalition has the bandwidth to deliver. 11/24
Poland has become something of a problem child. @nat_styczynska warns that despite 90% of the population being positive about EU membership, support is shallow and based on transactional thinking. Political parties have yet to see the EU as a partner instead of a donor. 12/24
The Netherlands has also become an increasingly tetchy member state. @pbergsen explains the UK’s exit has caused a shift in its approach to the EU, with the Dutch pushing for as much power as possible to remain with member states. 13/24
Beyond Brexit, Ireland also finds itself in an interesting position. As @Giadina_1988 explains, the country – now a net contributor to the EU budget – has to decide what kind of Union it wants and whether it sees itself at the core of any further integration. 14/24
Another of the EU’s problem children is Hungary. @VeghZsuzsusanna explains that the eurosceptic approach of Orbán is no longer a trend but simply policy. She argues that the EU’s handling of Hungary will be crucial for whether the Union can uphold the Copenhagen criteria. 15/24
Tuomas Iso-Markku explains that Finland has one of the most prominent eurosceptic parties in the EU. But the constraints small states face should keep Finnish EU policy broadly stable, even if The Finns party re-enter government. 16/24
Now policy, and first the eurozone. Hanno Degner argues that Brexit has brought some uncertainty it may decisively tip the balance of power towards euro-ins. Euro-outs have fallen from 27% to just 14% of the EU economy, and he expects more eurozone members in a decade. 17/24
Trade has become one of the most important policy areas in the EU. @juliamagntorn argues that the rise of Asia, the trend towards services and digitalisation, increasing environmental concerns and threats to the multilateral trading system will dominate the next few years. 18/24
As for the environment, @DrBrendanMoore explains that while it is clearly a priority of the new Commission, delivering will place substantial strain on the institutions. The green agenda will also come into conflict with concerns over EU competitiveness. 19/24
Migration is another salient policy issue. @KatjaSwider explains that far from the fresh start @vonderleyen promised, her Commission has continued with aggressive rhetoric, conflating migration with crime and terrorism, and seeing external migrants as a threat. 20/24
On the single market, @Josephine_HAR explains that it has been one of the areas where the EU has made progress in recent years. However, because things like new digital policies impinge on horizontal issues such as competition, it will become increasingly contentious. 21/24
Another area where some prog has been made is defence. @armida_lm argues new DG Defence Industry is evid of fact defence is a priority. The next frontier will be AI, where EU procurement and capabilities need to be developed. As ever, we wait to see if actions match words. 22/24
Finally, foreign policy. @nmep20 explains that after decades of limited prog, it is unrealistic to expect a sudden breakthrough. But the loss of the UK and the turbulent external environment may provide enough incentive for member states to act together more coherently. 23/24
The EU faces many challenges, from divisions between members to an imposing set of policy demands. The report provides a basis for understanding the EU in the coming decade. And understanding is crucial. The EU still matters - despite Brexit. Right. I need a drink. END
