. It’s nice to have stocks rip (aka ,$AM) while others like paladin take a rest after a monster rally from the lows in US$ terms. Uranium has been quiet as spot’s rally has slowed down as buyers still haven’t entered, and some market participants are bearish on supply
Being flooded with resumption of production. Anyone looking at what CCJ has mentioned- resumption at cigar lake will be for economic reasons (guys its not economic here), & skyrocketing COVID cases in Kazakhstan i would think that supply will get delayed. The Tenge also rallying
12% makes it likely that KAZ will want a higher spot. Couple all this noise with placement galore (something ive warned about-with VMY, PEN etc) and you have had the momentum in some names like dry up. However i expect in the next week or so will come up with their
Restart plans and this should serve as a large catalyst esp for a company that is cheap, has 3 years of cash burn left, and is one of the larger producers in the world with no risk on environmental or other permits needed (or large $ needed to build a plant) (remember the old
Shareholders already paid for the $600m LH plant. I added to my considerably large position last night. The rerating from junior explorer to producer should take the stock back to the high teens in my estimation (even w/o a big move in ). Recall other uranium names like
Ccj and nxe are already back to their July highs- a time when was 16c. And unlike nxe which wont produce for 5 years and still needs to raise significant $ to get into operation, pdn can be up and running in 12-18 mos something the market has not given it any credit for.
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$QQQ Some musings on a Saturday morning. @kevinmuir piece yesterday about HF continued buying of tech and selling of energy- something i had noted as well in several tweets from GS data made me think what is causing this apparent stupidity. H/t to Kevin for some of these charts
After all everyone knows that rising
Rates are bad for high duration assets. So why the continued doubling down on a losing bet. & even though the charts don’t show it, GS data shows the continued buying of tech & selling of energy ytd.
$GLD $SLV Two years ago close to this day I made a fateful decision to dump all my $gdxj and buy $AR at $1/share. Close colleagues thought i was absolutely loony- sentiment on gold was sky high (similar to where oil sentiment is today fyi) and well sentiment on gas- you could
not find a more reviled asset. That was a life changing trade & even though i exited 1/2 my $ar at 10 & 1/2 at $14; the entries into $btu sub 3, and $5.50 ended up being even better switches. So why the back story-Twitter has made me so much $ from getting a real time sentiment
check on where sentiment is. Well now lets talk about oil; My timeline has everyone calling for $150 oil; don't believe me- look at COT o/s-now I'm not bearish oil- if anyone remembers for 2 years many of my followers have asked me about gold & i said nope-only care about energy
$PDN #uranium I had a quick catch up call with $PDN mgmt today. Some interesting insights. Firstly to address the sale of a directors 23% holding in the company which is what caused the stock to get smashed. In Australia, your tax liability is set based on when you are free to
Sell-given pdn just came out of blackout post results, that px was just recent & given Cliff Lawrence (chairman) did not want undue risk on px fluctuations, he sold to lock in the taxes due. This seems pretty reasonable. For someone who defended $AM mgmt for selling oodles of
Stock at 4.2 and bot boat loads sub $4,i can tell you over reaction for tax related selling can be costly ($AM since those sales has 3x including the generous dividend). In addition, mgmt is looking at expanding the LH resource such that there wont be a cliff in output from 9m to
$PANR $PTHRF. The benefit of the company having raised more $ than expected- as evidenced by the huge outcrop of support in a very oversubscribed deal is that when entering into negotiations to sell the asset a much stronger b/s leaves them in a much better negotiating position
See last line in the paragraph by Jay Chatheam. Mgmt told me that their phones were ringing off the hook from oil companies that were shocked PANR was able to pull of the fund raise. So for all the naysayers who are upset with the additional few % in diln- and are dumping the
Shares today, if your ultimate goal is to sell the asset to the highest bidder (recall the August webinar where Jay Cheatham said this is our last venture & we want to go out with a big win), you need a strong balance sheet so you don’t get pushed around- be it with a farm out
$PANR $PTHRF. This is amazing news. 1. The company raising 50 of the 70$m with a convertible at a 20% premium (around 80p) and is payable at company’s option in either cash or shares. Thus with the 70$M raise the company plans to drill all the zones but most importantly ALKAID
Which will be producing oil - so they can use the cash flow to prepay the convertible loans. Instead of giving 30-50% of the field to a farm out partner- Panr will own 100% less the dilution from this deal - and if they can use alkaid cash flow the dilution will be in the single
Digit %. I’m beyond amazed at the phenomenal financial deal PANR managed to secure. If this is a huge gusher- im glad we own 100% and not some small tiny %. (Note Exxon in Guyana etc ends up owning 20-30% of these massive fields) - we own 100%!!! Time to
These charts from @themarketear show just how much hate there is towards puts, and a strategy called “Texas Hedge” going long calls funded by selling puts (or in HF lingo called risk reversals) has gained in popularity. Problem is this is super super risky.
Here’s the chart showing folks going long calls, shorting puts.