Thread by @pstronski

THREAD: Many in the West believe that dire economic impacts of the pandemic and oil market crash will suppress Putin’s appetite for foreign intervention. That view seems misguided if one looks through the lens of Russia’s deployment of #PMCs. 1/10 carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/02/imp…

Private military companies (PMCs), such as #Wagner, have emerged as a cornerstone of the #Kremlin’s off-the-books pursuit of an activist foreign policy agenda. They are a low-cost, low-risk, and deniable tool of power projection. 2/10 carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/08/put…

In #Libya, Wagner has played a key role in the surge on the battlefield of Khalifa Haftar (the principal rival of the UN-backed GNA) since the last fall. @USAfricaCommand recently uncovered Russia’s deployment of fighter aircraft in support of #Wagner in Libya. 3/10

U.S. Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland described the Russian presence in the Libyan crisis as a “game-changer.” But what’s prompting such active Russian presence in Libya? 4/10 @USAEmbassyLibya @ddknyt nytimes.com/2020/04/14/wor…

The Kremlin seems to have a higher risk tolerance when it can fill vacuums, take advantage of U.S. retrenchment, and create facts on the ground. PMCs, such as Wagner, offer an expandable, deniable, and scalable front to do so. 5/10

As Nate Reynolds and Konstantin Gaaze have argued, Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin provides mercenary services in Libya and other hotspots to curry favor with Putin and help protect his political control in return for privileges and revenue streams. 6/10
carnegie.ru/commentary/731…

In fact, Wagner embodies the chasm between Russia's institutional state and its shadowy regime. Elites like Prigozhin need Putin’s patronage, and he needs stewards to manage the bounty. Together, they keep the state in the regime’s shadows. 7/10
carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/08/as-…

In recent weeks, Russian-backed Haftar saw a reversal of fortune on the ground in Libya, as Turkey came to the rescue of the GNA, providing a level playing field. 8/10 @declanwalsh
nytimes.com/2020/05/21/wor…

Russia has demonstrated a knack for filling the vacuums in the Middle East and beyond. Simply exposing Moscow’s shadowy practices will unlikely prompt reevaluation or embarrassment on the part of Russian policymakers. 9/10

Bu jury is still out on Russian PMCs’ interventions in Libya and elsewhere. The record of their deployment in gray-zone warfare highlights the gap between the Kremlin’s ambitions and the capabilities available to act on them. END carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/02/imp…