THREAD: Emboldened by a series of tactical gains in the Mideast, the Kremlin is turning its sights on Africa. How serious a challenge is this new effort? /1 
Later this week Putin is hosting 50+ African leaders for the first-ever Russia-Africa Summit. I took an in-depth look at Russian inroads in a new study, “Late to the Party: Russia’s Return to Africa.” #GlobalRussia /2 ceip.org/p-80056
The USSR provided economic aid and security ties to African states & liberation movements during the Cold War. But that legacy provides only limited springboard for Russia today. /3
Despite media attention on Central African Republic, Russia’s clout on the continent doesn’t remotely compare with the influence the USSR once enjoyed. /4
Knowledge of Africa in Russia has contracted since Soviet era; Russia hasn’t invested in a new generation of Africanists at home and has failed to cultivate next generation of partners in Africa. This will impede its geopolitical ambitions. /5
Russia’s return to Africa is facilitated by vacuums of Western power. Firing former Sec. State Tillerson by tweet while he was in Africa sent an awful message about US commitment to the continent. /6
Guess who was in Africa at the very same moment? Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, kickstarting a wave of senior diplomatic outreach that accelerated over 2018-2019. /7
Senior Trump admin officials since then haven’t followed up their lofty statements about Africa; Trump himself made waves with inflammatory comments about Africans. Russia is nimble at exploiting such vacuums. /8 qz.com/africa/1227868…
Russia mainly sees Africa as a diplomatic partner for its vision of a multi-polar world, which won’t be led by the US. African Union is key to this vision, but a lot of this is theater. /9 insideover.com/politics/sochi…
African states make up ¼ of the UN, a fact Russian diplomats capitalize on for important votes about Syria, Ukraine, etc. /10
Russia’s most important inroads have been in highly troubled countries (CAR) or pariahs (Sudan, Zimbabwe) b/c the Kremlin has limited toolkit to project influence in faraway regions or cultures. /11 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian debt relief, trade & investment, and tech assistance to Africa pale in comparison to China, US, EU, Japan, etc. Russia has given out $20 billion in debt relief while China has made $200+ in commercial loans. /12
Presence of Russian mercenaries shows the Kremlin’s risk appetite is small. It doesn’t want to use Russia’s regular militaries but mercenaries, which use self-financing mechanisms (mining rights) to sustain military deployments. /13
Much of Russian activity in Africa is noise meant to unnerve us. Russia’s involvement in Africa is guided by unrealistic ambitions or sheer opportunism aimed to secure Putin’s patronage at home. Wagner’s activities are a case in point. /14 carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/08/put…
African countries with strong civil societies, independent journalists, and robust judicial systems have been successful in exposing Russian malign activity. /15 bellona.org/news/nuclear-i…
To be sure, U.S. faces important challenges from Russia. Best response is to focus attention on Africa itself, not just geopolitical competitors. /END
ceip.org/p-80056
ceip.org/p-80056
