1/ Q: Have we learned anything new recently about #COVID19 transmission?
A: Recent analysis of infection clusters in Japan bolsters evidence that heavy breathing in close proximity is high risk activity for community spread.
2/ Japan has been tracing “clusters” of coronavirus infections: 5 or more confirmed cases with primary exposure reported at a common event or venue.
The recently summary published by the @CDCgov: wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
is full of interesting findings:
3/
🏥 Health care facilities + nursing homes are a large source of infection clusters, accounting for 46% of the clusters examined.
🎤 Many clusters were associated with heavy breathing in close proximity: think karaoke, conversations at clubs and bars, and exercising in gyms.
4/
🎫The largest non-healthcare cluster was among more than 30 people who attended a live music concert, including performers, audience members, and event staff.
🤒 The most common age group for probable primary cases were 20-39 year olds.
5/
😶 Where date of transmission could be determined, 41% of the primary cases were presymptomatic or asymptomatic at the time. Only 1 had a cough at the time of transmission.
This is why masking is important: people may not know they are sick or at risk of spreading #COVID.
6/ Some caveats: In this report, only 61% of cases of local transmission had links to known cases and thus could be traced in this way. This means 39% of cases came from unknown sources, so activities not mentioned here can still carry #Risk.
7/ Overall this new evidence supports Japan’s push for the population to avoid the “Three Cs”:
Closed spaces with poor ventilation,
Crowded places, and
Close-contact settings.
Sadly, it will take time to safely return to events with lots of cheering and singing...
8/ So MASK UP friends, and save the Karaoke for home for now!
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1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).