Thread by @tepsaeu

Today's TEPSA Debate: "#COVID19: What do Eastern Partnership countries make out of EU support?" has just started!

As always, we will be sharing some choice quotes from our experts here

@PMCGofficial @PA3yMKOB @unibirmingham @eu_near @NEC_Ukraine @FIIA_fi @coenatolin

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Our moderator Tobias Schumacher from @coenatolin is opening proceedings in light of the Eastern Partnership Conference and #COVID19

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First up is @khishtovani from @PMCGofficial, speaking about the economic impact of #COVID19 on Georgia:

❌-4% GDP as opposed to predicted +5% for 2020
❌budget deficit increase from 2.5% to 9%
❌employment estimates of unemployment increase from 12% to 22%

/2

"Taxed revenues will decrease in 2020 due to #COVID19, so the government will struggle to find the resources to finance recovery: no stimulus, no accounting for lost revenue"

@khishtovani from @PMCGofficial gives a dire assessment of prospects for recovery without support

/3

"It's crucially important to have a V-shaped recovery: we are an open economy, so if we can't resume tourism, attract FDI, we will struggle a lot after the critical phase of the crisis. We have crucial elections in Autumn, so the focus is on reelection, not than recovery"

/4

We now welcome Mathieu Bousquet from @eu_near to bring in the role of the EU in #COVID19 response

/5

Three initiatives:

1⃣COVID resilience contract: inject €75M directly into the budget
2⃣Complementary EU resilience facility: give technical aid to increase the efficiency of recovery
3⃣Regional programme: €320M to support SME in EaP Countries

@eu_near @EU_Commission

/6

"EU support has been and remains significant, and will contribute to help Georgia to recovery from the crisis"

Mathieu Bousquet from @eu_near concludes his detailed overview of the EU response to #COVID19 recovery in Georgia

/7

Our moderator Tobias Schumacher from @coenatolin highlights Mathieu Bousquet's focus on the need for good communication initiatives for recovery in the EaP:

"@EU_Commission and @eu_eeas officials have noted this as well"

/8

We now welcome Kataryna Wolzcuk from @unibirmingham and @ChathamHouse begins her presentation on how Georgia has coped with #COVID19 as regards trust in government: "the attention is now shifting to socio-economic questions"

/9

"There is no doubt that Georgia and Ukraine cannot recover without international assistance"

Kataryna Wolzcuk from @unibirmingham and @ChathamHouse explains how and why emergency assistance is needed in these countries

/10

"The EU is visible and active, but is not seen as a friend: as long-term measures come into play, this will change"

Kataryna Wolzcuk from @unibirmingham and @ChathamHouse highlights that the EU has the machinery and expertise to be successful in helping others recover

/11

"The pandemic, despite integration, presents and unprecedented challenge and will shape perceptions of the EU in Georgia and Ukraine"

Kataryna Wolzcuk from @unibirmingham and @ChathamHouse wraps up her initial presentation to the TEPSA Debate

/12

"At @PA3yMKOB, we compare to the historical precedent of the 2008-2009 crash, where Ukraine's economy shrank by 15%"

Our current speaker Volodymyr Sidenko, from the Razumkov Centre, cites a remarkable historical precedent for the economic effects of #COVID19

/13

"Priorities for Ukraine's position is to implement macro- and micro-economic recovery plans, increase economic competitiveness, and identify priorities for good partnership that can create growth"

Volodymyr Sidenko from @PA3yMKOB sums up his contribution

/14

.@KaterynaZarembo from @NEC_Ukraine begins her presentation to the TEPSA Debate with an important point: the EaP summit should take place, and existing negotiations should continue

/15

"Support for EU membership in Ukraine has recently dropped"

What may this tell us about the success and visibility of European recovery aid in Ukraine?

@KaterynaZarembo from @NEC_Ukraine explains that 24% MORE people think aid will come from China than from the EU

/16

"The EU has been the biggest helper to Ukraine during the #COVID19 crisis, but Ukrainians seem not to be aware of this"

@KaterynaZarembo from @NEC_Ukraine expands on her social analysis of the perception of the EU in Ukraine

/17

Ryhor Nizhnikau from @FIIA_fi continues the discussion by adding some longer-term perspectives on the issue

/18

"We see chaotic decision making in Ukraine: that a Minister of Health is replaced during a pandemic is remarkable"

Ryhor Nizhnikau from @FIIA_fi gives an explanation of why EU response aid in Ukraine is a struggle

/19

We've now heard analyses on the ground in Ukraine, and as was the case with our discussion on Georgia earlier, we now welcome Julda Kielyte from @eu_near to give a presentation on DG NEAR's actions in the last few months

@EU_Commission

/20

"€190M support package for Ukraine with measures: PPE, testing kits, respirators; help for civil society, countering disinformation; future capacity building"

Julda Kielyte from @eu_near breaks down short, medium, and long term measures in the EU support package to Ukraine

/21

"Russia is pushing a disinformation narrative in Ukraine, so as part of our response, we want to counter this disinformation with real information about EU activities"

Julda Kielyte from @eu_near notes the importance of countering disinformation narratives

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"Due to Ukraine's relatively low level of #COVID19, most Ukrainians will feel the knock-on effects of the pandemic more than the pandemic"

Tobias Schumacher, our moderator from @coenatolin, highlights the importance of EU recovery aid in Ukraine

/23

The floor has been opened up for questions from the audience!

This is the beauty of our TEPSA Debates: we hear from experts and high-ranking policy-makers and EU officials, but you can engage with them in the European conversation yourself!

/24

Mathieu Bousquet from @eu_near is now speaking, in response to our first question, about oversight mechanisms: how can we ensure that the money given is spent in the ways that the EU has intended?

"Georgia in particular is ranked quite high in budget management"

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"The lack of a constructive agenda for the region betrays #RussianDisinformation as a hollow spoiler, not as a friend"

Kataryna Wolzcuk from @unibirmingham and @ChathamHouse breaks down the risk of disinformation campaigns during this time

/26

"Can the ENP be an effective forum for Global Power Europe?"

Our next question opens the discussion to the fascinating topic of Europe's place in the world moving towards the #FutureOfEurope - perhaps our guests from @eu_near in the @EU_Commission have a response?

/27

"We need the EaP, but we need it to be resilient, flexible, differentiated" - in other words, the EaP needs to be dynamic!

Kataryna Wolczuk gives her view on the future of the EaP after #COVID19

/28

Tobias Schumacher, our moderator from @coenatolin, extends his gratitude to our contributors to this "entertaining, incisive, thought-provoking, and enjoyable" debate as the TEPSA Debate wraps up

/29

This brings our latest TEPSA Debate "COVID-19: What do Eastern Partnership Countries make out of EU Support?" to a close, thank you to all our contributors, and stay tuned for more great content from the TEPSA channel in the coming weeks, including our #PPCBerlin next week!

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