The story of how Masa Son of SoftBank got started is wild and kinda inspirational
At age 16 he moved to the US to graduate from high school and then enroll at Berkeley. He returned to Japan and founded Softbank in 1981. Here is a 1992 interview with him hbr.org/1992/01/japane…
At Berkeley he keeps a journal with 250 invention ideas
He asks enough people until he finds professors willing to help him with his prototype. Which he then sells to Sharp for $1 million
That's not enough: he also imports game machines and writes software (another $3mm..)
He returns to Japan to research and plan
Has a matrix with "40 business ideas and 25 success measures"
Key criteria:
-Love the business for 50 years "at least"
"Choose one I would feel more and more excited about as the years passed"
-Unique
-Become number one
-Growing market
Starts SoftBank as a software distributor
"The PC was only a toy then"
"I looked around for someone selling software and I couldn't find anyone"
"I want to be the number one in the business of supplying wisdom and knowledge"
He's looking to make a splash and gets a huge booth at an electronics trade show
Software vendors had no marketing money, PC dealers had no software. "Some matchmaking is needed"
"My booth was jammed"
But he ended up with no sales
"People were laughing at me. He's a nice guy, but dumb"
"OK, I'm dumb. But I'm going to keep at it"
A few weeks after the show he gets a call. It's the third largest home electronics dealer. They need software for their new computer stores...
The sheer guts
"I have little money, no product, nothing"
Except "the greatest enthusiasm and desire"
"The number one guy in software distribution is me. I have no evidence, but I strongly believe it"
"I'm going to get all the PC software that's available in Japan. Everything."
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Some notes from the book Dot.con "How America Lost Its Mind and Money in the Internet Era," a play-by-play of the dotcom bubble.
Written in 2003 the pessimism around the web is striking in hindsight.
"Online economy... grossly exaggerated. Internet not a disruptive technology"
"Most internet startups failed because they were based on the mistaken premise that the internet represented a revolutionary new business model, which it didn't." Oof.
"Any retailer is basically a distributor. And arduous and costly operation."
Yes, there were bears. But many had been bearish long before the actual bubble took off.
"You've got companies going public that don't even have earnings."
"Everybody is tired of being bearish and wrong. Clients don't want to raise cash."
"Bill Gates came to see me with a six pack of beer and a pizza when negotiating a contract. He told me one time he said, John, forget about hardware. There's no piece of hardware that can't be emulated in software. And damn, I failed to listen to it."
Sun Valley:
"After hearing Gates describe his new company, sitting with Warren Buffett and having him ask: 'would you invest in that?' And I said, Hell, I don't know. Warren, I don't see the moat. It's probably pretty good. But isn't he gonna have a hell of a lot of competitors?"
[24] Growth vs value
"If you’ve ever watched one of those bank heist movies where they’re trying to get into the vault. They have two sets of keys, and two different bank tellers, and they twist together. Unless you have both of them, you’re not going to get into the vault."
"I’m looking for stocks with high barriers to investment. I need things that keep out my competition. They can be either physical barriers, like a geography with less competition, or they can be intellectual barriers."
My must-listen today. As always insightful and personal by @BillBrewsterSCG. @NonGaap on anticipating big decisions, governance debt, board dynamics, patterns in newsflow, striking when "things don't make sense,"
bullish and bearish signals in compensation
[64] "The return on time of looking at proxy statements is remarkable. You can spend 30-60 minutes on this and develop thesis-changing insights. It's something you can add to your existing process that doesn't disrupt anything else."
[62] "Regardless of what you do, the highest conviction decision in your life should be your willingness to bet on yourself."
A good time to revisit that time when legendary trader Bob Wilson got caught in a short squeeze called Resorts International (which Forbes at the time called “the most catastrophic short play in modern times”)
Wilson was a child of the Great Depression and bought his first stocks at 29 after working some years at a bank's trust department. He put his money into two stocks: IBM and Houston Lightning & Power. On 75% margin, the maximum allowed then.
There was a small crash in 1956 and his portfolio was closed out by his broker. His money was gone and helplessly he watched the stocks recover quickly.
After that experience he decided to never be unhedged again.