"Bill Gates came to see me with a six pack of beer and a pizza when negotiating a contract. He told me one time he said, John, forget about hardware. There's no piece of hardware that can't be emulated in software. And damn, I failed to listen to it."
Sun Valley:
"After hearing Gates describe his new company, sitting with Warren Buffett and having him ask: 'would you invest in that?' And I said, Hell, I don't know. Warren, I don't see the moat. It's probably pretty good. But isn't he gonna have a hell of a lot of competitors?"
"You think in terms of mathematical models and try to come up with heuristics that simplify and make it easier to make decisions.
At TCI we were trying to delegate M&A. We tried to make it very simple. If you can fill in these four blanks, you can go ahead and close the deal."
"My dad always said:
First, whatever the problem is, try and guess at the answer. Try and develop your instinct.
Then use the techniques they teach you in school.
Over time you will train your intuition and probably guess the answer better than the technical method."
"The skills of being a good acquire: putting yourself into the shoes of the other guy.
It may be he's looking for a job for his idiot son-in-law. Maybe he's got tax issues or a divorce problem.
You try to take a holistic view when you look at optimizing bids."
"It's about problem solving, optimizing businesses, optimizing business structure.
You set the objective. The objective is maximizing shareholder wealth in a reasonable timeframe.
And then you set about to look at what dials you have, what puts you in that direction."
"My conservatism's probably run afoul of the opportunities that the business I was in presented.
In other words, the blue skies were much brighter than I ever really imagined or was comfortable with."
"My mathematics can be limited vision - a world where I can use leverage and tax deferral and growing cash flow in order to create value."
"You think you have a pretty good vision of where this is going, and you don't have a clue. It just gets so much bigger and so much broader than you could have imagined.
Then you got to try and catch up and see if you can figure out what your grandkids are talking about."
At ~50 talks about inflation worries. Investing in land, timber, equities in Switzerland, Korea, Canada.
Not investing in $BTC "extremely volatile." "I praise friends who bought Bitcoin and allow them to buy dinner."
"I'm conservative. Go long Comcast and sell a call"
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
[24] Growth vs value
"If you’ve ever watched one of those bank heist movies where they’re trying to get into the vault. They have two sets of keys, and two different bank tellers, and they twist together. Unless you have both of them, you’re not going to get into the vault."
"I’m looking for stocks with high barriers to investment. I need things that keep out my competition. They can be either physical barriers, like a geography with less competition, or they can be intellectual barriers."
My must-listen today. As always insightful and personal by @BillBrewsterSCG. @NonGaap on anticipating big decisions, governance debt, board dynamics, patterns in newsflow, striking when "things don't make sense,"
bullish and bearish signals in compensation
[64] "The return on time of looking at proxy statements is remarkable. You can spend 30-60 minutes on this and develop thesis-changing insights. It's something you can add to your existing process that doesn't disrupt anything else."
[62] "Regardless of what you do, the highest conviction decision in your life should be your willingness to bet on yourself."
A good time to revisit that time when legendary trader Bob Wilson got caught in a short squeeze called Resorts International (which Forbes at the time called “the most catastrophic short play in modern times”)
Wilson was a child of the Great Depression and bought his first stocks at 29 after working some years at a bank's trust department. He put his money into two stocks: IBM and Houston Lightning & Power. On 75% margin, the maximum allowed then.
There was a small crash in 1956 and his portfolio was closed out by his broker. His money was gone and helplessly he watched the stocks recover quickly.
After that experience he decided to never be unhedged again.
The first community was Silicon Investor which got started in 1995, even before the launch of the Netscape browser. Eventually others came around like the yahoo message boards, ragingbull, motley fool.
Momo, pump'n'dump, bashers - new lingo was required for the internet age.
Short selling in the 80's sounds so much less exciting compared to today.
Go for terminal stocks (“frauds, bankruptcy candidates, accounting fiascos”) and complain they don't answer your calls, “it’s as if you were calling up the CEO to ask if someone in his family has AIDS”