1. I understand the economic pressure, but believe the UK government is opening up too soon. Lives will be lost as a result. It now falls to us to make the choices we feel are best for ourselves & our loved ones. In order to do that, we need to be properly informed.
2. I caught heat in February for saying the #SARSCoV2 virus doesn't cause mild illness. Anyone with knowledge of the original SARS outbreak did not expect this virus to be mild. Scientists now warn of long-term lung damage in some #COVID__19 survivors...
bbc.co.uk/news/health-53…
bbc.co.uk/news/health-53…
3. Of neurological damage, cardiac issues, renal problems, liver damage. This was never a mild virus. There is no doubt the government's decision to downplay risk and describe it as such in its early public health messaging helped the virus spread.
bbc.com/future/article…
bbc.com/future/article…
4. Having said it's not mild, I believe the virus will attenuate over summer. Nearly all respiratory viruses do this and no one can definitively explain why. @PatrickSSte has outlined the best hypothesis I'm aware of.
5. I think the outbreaks in chilled meat processing plants give us a preview of how the virus might behave in winter. We should be using summer to minimise transmission. Instead, I believe seasonal attenuation will encourage complacency.
bbc.co.uk/news/53137613
bbc.co.uk/news/53137613
6. I have concerns about immunity. I think we're repeating the mistake of trusting models and theories rather than believing the evidence in front of us. We have no idea how long immunity will last, but we do know it's only temporary for other HCoVs.
7. I'm also concerned about persistence. SARS-CoV-2 originated in bats. Bat viruses are known to go into low replication states to adapt to hibernation. The virus is no longer culture positive, but it is persistent.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
8. Other bat viruses have been shown to persist in this low replication state in humans. A survey of filovirus persistence found RT-PCR positivity but culture negativity (sound familiar?)
journals.plos.org/plosntds/artic…
journals.plos.org/plosntds/artic…
9. Filoviruses of bat origin have been shown to persist in this low replication state and reactivate intermittently. I believe this is linked to hibernation in bats, but the area needs further research.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
10. In short, a new virus that can cause multi-system disease is still circulating. There will always be risks in life, but until we have a better understanding of what this virus does and its long-term effects, I would err on the side of caution.
11. @NYGovCuomo said nothing about this virus has been better than expected. In opening up, I believe the British government is taking a leap of faith and hoping the virus will be kind to us. Experience suggests this is a mistake.
12. On a positive note, scientists at MIT now believe peptides might hold the key to neutralising #COVID__19
news.mit.edu/2020/peptide-b…
news.mit.edu/2020/peptide-b…
13. After a long review of vaccine programmes and potential therapies, I came to the same conclusion a number of weeks ago and invested in and joined the advisory board of @Ligandal
14. Ligandal's CEO @nanogenomic has an exceptional understanding of the microbiological challenge confronting us, and is on an accelerated pathway to try to solve it.
15. The British government has been responsible for one of the world's worst pandemic responses. It has misrepresented data, failed to deliver on its promises, and is now taking steps that will put lives at risk, and for that reason I'm not paying much attention to what it says.
16. I'm going to continue making my own assessment of risk, and will be devoting as much time as possible to helping those who are working hard to solve the problem.
17. While the British government squanders hundreds of millions of taxpayers money on who knows what, a small syndicate of unconventional thinkers is privately funding research we hope could deliver real results. Stay tuned.
