UK in a Changing Europe Profile picture
Jun 25, 2020 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It's that time again, it's #ThursdayThread time. ⏰

Earlier this week, we released a new report by @dgbailey and @IvanRajicUK, looking at how the manufacturing sector will be impacted by #Brexit.

Want some highlights? Then carry on reading...

#ManufacturingBrexit Image
Manufacturing makes up around 10% of the UK economy and 9% of private sector employment.

It provides close to half of UK exports and around 60% of private sector investment. Image
Manufacturing typically has higher productivity and wages than average for the economy as a whole. 📈 Image
The regional importance of the sector varies enormously. 🗺 Image
Some sectors are larger than others... 🚙 🖥 ✈️ 🚀 Image
Disruption to manufacturing from Brexit would have a sizeable negative impact on the wider UK economy.

UK manufacturing is highly integrated with the 🇪🇺 single market – nearly 1/2 of all goods imports and exports come from or go to the EU. Image
The consequences will be worst with no deal.

Nearly all #manufacturing sectors worry about a lack of regulatory alignment with the #EU and the bulk want continued free trade.

Some such as automotive could suffer a severe blow from tariffs or if there are no common regulations. Image
That said, some sectors will face fewer disruptions.

For example, even with no-trade deal, aerospace will likely face no tariffs, as international trade in the sector is mostly tariff-free.

But even in these sectors, firms are worried about regulatory hurdles.
In most cases, Brexit will create additional costs for companies. 💳

This can be due to tariffs, customs declarations, certification costs, rules of origin compliance, loss of collaboration in R&D, border delays, EU customers switching suppliers, visa costs for EU workers, etc
Manufacturers are concerned first and foremost about the UK falling out of common EU regulations.

Uncertainty about the UK-EU relationship is making it difficult for manufacturers to prepare and this uncertainty has already contributed to falling investment. 📉
Above all, they want to avoid a no-trade deal scenario, especially in the wake of the hit to the economy from Covid-19.

The government could introduce more measures to cushion the post-Brexit shock, such as loans, wage subsides, taking equity stakes in companies, etc.
Long-term more power could be transferred to UK’s regions and devolved institutions.

A range of policies on issues such as skills, R&D, financial support for firms and advisory support could be more firmly integrated within an overarching industrial policy.
This would mean a ‘policy reset’, with a need to invest more into an industrial policy, bringing the UK in line with other advanced economies.

Specific sectors or regions could be targeted, and in particular firms can be helped to take advantage of new technologies.
Fancy reading some more?

Here's a link to the full #ManufacturingBrexit report⬇️

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

Until next week....

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More from @UKandEU

Jun 18
📢 PANEL 1: Northern Ireland

👥 Our first panel has begun, with @DPhinnemore, @hayward_katy, Martin Fraser @IrelandEmbGB, & @jillongovt.

📊 David & Katy will present their latest polling then the panel will consider what’s next for politics in NI


Image
🗣️ "There is support for these arrangements...even if they are just getting over a majority".

📈@DPhinnemore unpacks the data from the latest report "testing the temperature", and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.
@DPhinnemore 📊 "The level of trust in the UK government is very low"

@DPhinnemore unpacks the data on levels of trust in managing Northern Ireland's interests in relation to the post-Brexit arrangements.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 15, 2021
🔊The Prime Minister has delivered his big speech on the 'levelling up' agenda ⬇

But what do we already know about 'levelling up'?

And what does the research show about how regional equality can be achieved?

Read this #ThursdayThread to find out more!🤳
Reflecting on lessons from elsewhere in Europe on how to achieve regional economic convergence, @thomasforth @ODILeeds @TheDataCity argues for a commitment to invest more in skills, transport, research and development & culture in cities across the UK👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/regional-inequ…
@michaelkenny_ & @TKelsey915 lay out the evidence that 'a top-down plan for place-based intervention, based upon bilateral negotiations with local areas, runs the risk of enforcing the priorities & orthodoxies of the centre'📝

ukandeu.ac.uk/long-read/leve…

@Dept_of_POLIS
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14, 2021
Our #AcademicintheSpotlight series promotes academics producing thought-provoking work on the UK’s changing relationship with the EU. This week, we feature @fiona_costello – who works on the @EUmigrantworker project at @cambridgelaw.

Find out more 👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/eu-migrant-wor…
@fiona_costello's research looks at the impact of Brexit on EU nationals in the UK, and how these problems are being resolved by community advice organisations.

Watch this to find out more ⬇⬇

As well as working as an academic, Fiona works with @GyrosOrg to help EU nationals access legal advice and support – allowing her to understand everyday problems facing EU nationals on the frontline.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3, 2021
Our next #IsolationInsight event on 'The Future of the EU' is about to start

Speakers:

@HelenHet20
@simonjhix
@lisaocarroll
Loukas Tsoukalis
@anandMenon1 (chair)

Watch LIVE here:

We'll be live-tweeting from this thread...
.@simonjhix: "In the medium term, Brexit is a challenge to the EU. There will be a UK model of exit."

"At some point, the UK model will seem quite attractive, which could be politically very difficult for the EU."
.@HelenHet20: "The EU's reaction to #Brexit was primarily defensive, but there was an opportunity to face the euro-ins and euro-outs question head on."

"Instead, it was seen as a potential long-term threat to the EU's credibility."
Read 33 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
Yesterday we released a NEW report #WhatWouldNoDealMean.

And, you've guessed it, this report is the subject of today's #ThursdayThread. 🧵

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
.@BorisJohnson has said that no deal with the EU would be a “good outcome” for the UK.

This report highlights what it would mean in terms of trade, fisheries, connectivity, the impact on citizens, Northern Ireland, economics, security, foreign policy, politics and more.
On #trade, the two sides would revert to #WTO rules.

We’re talking tariffs, customs checks, and regulatory checks. In other words, increased hassle, increased time and increased costs for businesses trading with the EU.

@CSBarnard24 explains.
Read 14 tweets
Sep 23, 2020
Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

(Thread)

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

#NoDealBrexit
Read 14 tweets

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