Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. June 30 to July 06 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries and territories
(20 of them detailed below)
Risk maps
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE and @SDSCdatascience
Open Access: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

2/21. Switzerland reported 62 new #COVID19 cases on June 29, daily growth rate 0.2%. With 48 new cases/day are forecast, the country remains in its safety zone, in spite of a slight surge in case number.
R-eff.=1.5
61,758 tests/1M pop; 197 deaths/1M pop; CFR=5.3%

3/21. Italy reported 174 new #COVID19 cases on June 29, daily growth rate 0.1%. With 250 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.96
85,395 tests/1M pop; 575 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 14.5%

4/21. Portugal reported 457 new #COVID19 cases on June 29, daily growth rate 0.9%. With 380->400 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is plateauing at medium-level of its epidemic activity.
R-eff=1.1
108,081 tests/1M pop; 152 deaths/1M pop; CFR=3.8%

5/21. Spain reported 301 new #COVID19 cases on June 28 (growth rate of 0.2%). With 390 new cases/day forecast, the country remains in its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.11
70,375 tests/1M pop; 607 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 11.4%

6/21. Poland reported 193 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 (growth rate of 0.8%). With 260->225 new cases/day forecast, the country is landing toward its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.87
35,830 tests/1M pop; 38 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.2%

7/21. Germany reported 262 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 (growth rate 0.2%). With 440 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.83
64,603 tests/1M pop; 108 deaths/1 M pop; CFR= 4.6%

8/21. The UK reported 901 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 with a growth rate of 0.3%. With 990->920 new cases each day forecast, the country comes back to its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.92
66,833 tests/1M pop; 655 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 14%

9/21. Israel reported 334 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 with a growth rate of 1.9%. With 440->570 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country experiences a 2nd wave of its epidemic.
Reprod. Rate (R-eff) 1.26
92,974 tests/1M pop; 36 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.3%

10/21. Saudi Arabia reported 3,989 new #COVID19 cases on June 29, growth rate 2.2%. With 3,900->4,200 new cases/day forecast, the country is not currently controlling its second epidemic wave.
Reprod. Rate (R-eff) 1.01
39,640 tests/1M pop; 46 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 0.8%

11/21. Iran reported 2,489 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 (growth rate of 1.1%). With 2,520 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is experiencing a 2nd wave currently plateauing at high level.
R-eff=1
17,889 tests/1M pop; 128 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.7%

12/21. Russia reported 6,791 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 with (growth rate 1.1%). With 6,700->6,100 new cases/day forecast, the country is plateauing at high level slowly landing towards its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.93
124,137 tests/1M pop; 63 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.4%

13/21. South Africa reported 6,334 new #COVID19 cases on June 29, growth rate 5%. With 6,900->9,200 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is in exponential phase of its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff): 1.26
23,890 tests/1M pop; 43 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.8%

14/21. India reported 19,459 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 with (growth rate 3.7%). With 20,400-25,800 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is in exponential phase of its epidemic wave.
Reprod Rate (R-effective) 1.19
5,479 tests/1M pop; 12 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 3%

15/21. The USA reported 38,673 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 (growth rate 1.6%). With 40,400->47,100 new cases/d, 8-d forecast heterogeneous epidemic development (see risk map and details in

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1276822809084338177?s=20

)
R-eff = 1.18
86,306 tests/1M pop; 385 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.9%

16/21. Canada reported 218 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 with a growth rate of 0.2%. With 230->190 new cases/day in the next days, the country is in its epidemic safety zone.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.79
66,731 tests/1M pop; 230 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 8.3%

17/21. Mexico reported 4,050 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 with a growth rate of 2.3%. With 4,700->4,100 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of epidemic activity.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.95
3,456 tests/1M pop; 211 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 12.3%

18/21. Brazil reported 30,476 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 (growth rate 2.9%). With 37,400->40,500 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of epidemic activity.
R-eff.=1.08
Tests (not reported) pop; 275 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.3%

19/21. Chile reported 4,216 new #COVID19 cases on June 28 (growth rate 1.7%). With 4,400->3,900 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.75
53,624 tests/1M pop; 294 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 2%

20/21. Peru reported 3,430 new #COVID19 cases on June 29 (growth rate 1.3%). With 3,600 new cases/day in the next days, the country is plateauing at high level of epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.01
7,364 tests/1M pop; 291 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 3.3%

21/21. Australia reported 45 new #COVID19 cases on June 29, growth rate 0.5%. With 43->57 new cases/day forecast, the country is trying to keep control on the surge of winter epidemic pressure.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.49
85,507 tests/1M pop; 4 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.4%