Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. July 05 to 11 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries and territories (20 of them detailed below)
Risk maps for July
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE and @SDSCdatascience
Open Access: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

2/21. Switzerland reported 133 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, daily growth rate 0.3%. 120->170 new cases/day are forecast for the next days. With 1.6 new cases/100,000 pop, the country is just out of its safety zone.
R-eff.=1.59
67,470 tests/1M pop; 198 deaths/1M pop; CFR=5.3%

3/21. Italy reported 223 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, daily growth rate 0.1%. With 190->170 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone.
R-eff=0.90
90,065 tests/1M pop; 576 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 14.4%

4/21. Portugal reported 374 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, daily growth rate 0.8%. With 340 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is plateauing at medium-level of its epidemic activity.
R-eff=0.99
116,742 tests/1M pop; 155 deaths/1M pop; CFR=3.7%

5/21. Spain reported 442 new #COVID19 cases on July 03, growth rate of 0.2%. With 380 new cases/day forecast, the country remains in its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.08
74,220 tests/1M pop; 608 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 11.3%

6/21. Germany reported 422 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate of 0.2%. With 450 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is in its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.94
70,104 tests/1M pop; 109 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.6%

7/21. France reported 582 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 0.4%. With 590 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone.
R-eff=1.16
Tests not reported to OurWorldinData; 446 deaths/1 M pop; CFR=17.9%

8/21. The UK reported 519 new #COVID19 cases on July 04. Due to reports of negative numbers (-29,726) for correction on July 03, forecast are impossible for at least three days.
R-effective not reliable
No Figure presented.
73,637 tests/1M pop; 664 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 15.5%

9/21. Israel reported 513 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 3%. With 810->1,100 new cases/day forecast, the country experiences a 2nd wave of its epidemic which remains out of control.
R-eff=1.39
104,336 tests/1M pop; 37 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.2%

10/21. Saudi Arabia reported 4,193 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 2%. With 3,900 new cases/day forecast, the country is plateauing at high level in its second epidemic wave.
Reprod. Rate (R-eff) 1.02
48,098 tests/1M pop; 53 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 0.9%

11/21. Iran reported 2,566 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate of 1.1%. With 2,600 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is experiencing a 2nd wave currently plateauing at high level.
R-eff=1.01
19,842 tests/1M pop; 138 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.8%

12/21. Russia reported 6,718 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 1%. With 6,700 new cases/day forecast, the country is plateauing at high level still far from its safety zone.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.96
136,035 tests/1M pop; 68 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.5%

13/21. South Africa reported 9,063 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 5%. 8,700->11,200 new cases/day forecast. ALERT!!! the country does not control an exponential phase of its epidemic activity.
R-eff=1.25
27,483 tests/1M pop; 51 deaths/1M pop; CFR=1.7%

14/21. India reported 22,771 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 3.4%. With 21,300->24,200 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is in exponential phase of its epidemic wave.
R-eff=1.12
6,396 tests/1M pop; 14 deaths/1M pop; CFR=2.9%

15/21. The USA reported 54,442 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 1.8%. ALERT!!! With 49,400->51,900 new cases/d, 8-d forecast dramatic epidemic development (see risk map and details

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1279335734760148993?s=20

)
R-eff = 1.19
97,299 tests/1M pop; 396 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.6%

16/21. Canada, reported 319 new #COVID19 cases on July 04. Growth rate 0.3%.
Forecast: not reliable (and will be published only after three consecutive days of reliable reporting).
R-effective: not reliable
73,395 tests/1M pop; 234 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 8.2%

17/21. Mexico reported 6,740 new #COVID19 cases on July 04 with a growth rate of 2.5%. With 5,900->6,500 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of epidemic activity.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 1.12
3,891 tests/1M pop; 236 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 12.2%

18/21. Brazil reported 42,223 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 2.8%. With 40,800->43,600 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of epidemic activity.
R-eff.=1.11
6,957 tests/1M pop; 302 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.1%

19/21. Chile reported 3,548 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 1.1%. With 3,000->2,300 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.77
58,598 tests/1M pop; 323 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 2.1%

20/21. Peru reported 3,595 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 1.2%. With 3,400 new cases/day in the next days, the country is plateauing at high level of epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.98
7,591 tests/1M pop; 320 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 3.5%

21/21. Australia reported 254 new #COVID19 cases on July 04, growth rate 1.7%. With 157->292 new cases/day forecast. ALERT!!! The country seems to experience a second wave in its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 2.14
96,313 tests/1M pop; 4 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1.3%