A long thread (apologies) and some thoughts ahead of tomorrow's meeting between Trump and López Obrador. Both men are two similarly hard-wired presidents. As all good bullies, Trump sniffs out weakness: López Obrador's landslide electoral victory and mandate and his ...1/16
..congressional majority -in comparison to his predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto- surely had an impact on Trump’s initial approach to his now Mexican counterpart. And López Obrador at some point decided -or was convinced- that bending the knee was a better option than ...2/16
..standing his ground with Trump. As a leader who had not travelled abroad since his inauguration -skipping G20 and APEC summits and the UN General Assembly- and who is probably one of the most intellectually incurious and disinterested Mexican presidents of the modern ...3/16
..era when it comes to what happens around the globe, López Obrador could have certainly waited a few months more until after November 3 to travel to Washington. Instead, in a Pavlovian response to Trump, he has waded straight into electoral politics in the US. The ...4/16
..decision to travel now to Washington is fraught with challenges, not least the fact that president Trump will likely use president López Obrador as an electoral prop.
It’s certainly a slap in the face of #migrants in the US -11 million of whom are Mexicans- and a boon ..5/16
It’s certainly a slap in the face of #migrants in the US -11 million of whom are Mexicans- and a boon ..5/16
..to Trump’s dog-whistle xenophobia and chauvinism. And at a time when the US is riven by social and political convulsion unseen in 50 years, meeting with Trump in Washington, just before the general campaign starts, will be seen by many Americans as a slap in the back for ..6/16
..a polarising and unpopular president. And there’s always the danger that Trump will seek to spike the ball in the end-zone, further alienating Democrats in Congress that were key in delivering overwhelming support -and votes- for the ratification of the #USMCA. If the ...7/16
..purpose of the visit is to celebrate the entry into force of the #USMCA, then López Obrador -despite the congressional recess- should have also reached out to @SpeakerPelosi and the Democratic leadership to meet and thank them too, given the important role they played ...8/16
..in supporting the revamping of NAFTA and the approval of the #USMCA on Capitol Hill. What could have easily been achieved via a virtual welcoming of the entry into force of the USMCA has now morphed into a second successive Mexican government jumping on the Trump ...9/16
..electoral bandwagon, a new opportunity for the US president to pimp #Mexico, and deepening perceptions amongst Democrats that López Obrador prefers to see Trump reelected. Moreover, for a leader who has recurred to the default position that “the best foreign policy is ...10/16
..is domestic policy”, the trip will lay bare a paradox in López Obrador’s mantra: it’s precisely #Mexico’s domestic weaknesses and failings that are creating foreign policy vulnerabilities, particularly vis-à-vis this US Administration. It is likely that these will be ...11/16
..Congress- continue enacting abrupt policy shifts and changes to the rules across different sectors of the economy that bode ill for the level playing field required under NAFTA and its successor, the #USMCA. Perception is indeed reality, and Lopez Obrador -and ...15/16
..Mexico- can ill afford to be perceived as Trump’s patsies at this juncture of US history. It could have a long-standing impact for #Mexico’s relationship with the US and US society -and the voters that will determine the future of this country- in the decades to come. 16/16
