Capability to impose an Indian Ocean blockade on a nuclear armed enemy, has good #Deterrant value as the final conventional deterrent, below the nuclear threshold. The suggestions to shift the battle from Himalayas to the Indian Ocean are however, strategically ill considered
2/xxx Idea would be to #Deter China(by ability to cripple its oil imports & trade) from converting a hot border war into a full fledged war against Indian heartland(including by bringing a substantial part of its US-facing assets into Tibet+Xinjiang). #Deterrence=#NoWar in IO
3/xxx Sucessfull IO deterrence of kind indicated👆🏼, would mean fighting a cold war(not hot) in the littoral States and islands of Indian Ocean, which requires geoeconomics, geopolitics and diplomacy as much as, or more than, naval warfighting.
4/xxx The logic of #Strategy is #Capability plus #Credibility, not war mongering & bravado from expert hawks. What's the difference? They never tell us about the escalation ladder, it's different steps, when & why might they escalate, and our potential response at each stage🤔
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One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo#Saxon#World and among its subalterns. #Information#War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
2/nss Sweet spot for PLA aggression: #Elections in raucous democracies. => Lesson: Armed forces in threatened countries, should have more operational autonomy during election period.
2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
#Emedicine, #Telemedicine can/will revolutionise (high quality) #health delivery not only in #India’s rural and remote areas, but also in rural areas of much richer countries!
2/ncrh Remember these are the same folks whose neo-colonial progeny, preach us "principles" to support their selfish interests, and to "shame" us into working against our own national interest
3/ncrh The response must be rational, not emotional. Learn about India's (own) National interest, and the national interests of the major powers (Hint: USSR & PRC were colonial) to understand how "principles" are used & misused!
As I have said in many talks, and as the author @pujamehra wrote, the period 2004-13, was a, “lost decade” in terms of economic policy reform, not in terms of GDP growth rate. The latter was due to the lagged effects of 1991-2003 reforms.
The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy#reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India#Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today