Capability to impose an Indian Ocean blockade on a nuclear armed enemy, has good #Deterrant value as the final conventional deterrent, below the nuclear threshold. The suggestions to shift the battle from Himalayas to the Indian Ocean are however, strategically ill considered
https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1281625747325501449
2/xxx Idea would be to #Deter China(by ability to cripple its oil imports & trade) from converting a hot border war into a full fledged war against Indian heartland(including by bringing a substantial part of its US-facing assets into Tibet+Xinjiang). #Deterrence=#NoWar in IO
3/xxx Sucessfull IO deterrence of kind indicated👆🏼, would mean fighting a cold war(not hot) in the littoral States and islands of Indian Ocean, which requires geoeconomics, geopolitics and diplomacy as much as, or more than, naval warfighting.
4/xxx The logic of #Strategy is #Capability plus #Credibility, not war mongering & bravado from expert hawks. What's the difference? They never tell us about the escalation ladder, it's different steps, when & why might they escalate, and our potential response at each stage🤔
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