Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Deterrence

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THINKING CHALLENGE: From your common sense, why do people break the law?

Join me at 1pm, cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Good afternoon friends, thank you for joining me to discuss the history of Criminology, covering Chapter 03.

#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology Image
Before we get started with Unit 02, I wanted to check in how the course is progressing for you so far. Now that we've got one unit under our belt, how is online learning treating you?

#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
Read 65 tweets
In my judgement, the political correction started 3-6 months ago, so it's just a matter of spelling it out in diplomatic language, to the US Govt and Congress!
2/indus #PM's message is very clear: We can discuss shared values, including differences & nuances as friends/equals; But just as you resent foreign interference in your democratic processes, we resent foreign interference even more, because of our colonial history.
3/indus Greater effort to understand each other's views on issues on which there is a lot of ideological-political differences within each democracy (rather than to lecture from one perspective in one country to a different perspective in the other country)? 🧐🤔
Read 5 tweets
Former 🇩🇪 Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer has published a highly problematic op-ed in @china_table.

Based on a critique of a supposedly 🇺🇸 initiated Cold War 2.0 - more about this later - he makes the case for unconditional 🇨🇳 engagement.

A short 🧵/1 table.media/china/standpun…
Fischer's analogy to Cold War 1.0 is a red herring. The threat which the Chinese Communist Party poses to peace within and outside 🇨🇳 can not be directly compared to the former USSR. It is a different kettle of fish. What I find worrisome is how Fischer misrepresents the CCP /2
Fischer describes 🇨🇳 as "a market economy under Leninist auspices". This "hybrid character" supposedly explains China's "success story" and its ability to overtake the 🇺🇸 technologically and economically by 2030. The many costs of China's political system do not feature at all /3
Read 17 tweets
"The greatest danger for the United States in this competition is the erosion of conventional deterrence..Absent a convincing deterrent, the [PRC] will be emboldened to take action to undermine the rules-based international order"

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
ADM Davidson:

"In September 2020, #Cambodia razed a #US-built facility on #Ream Naval Base that served as the headquarters for the National Committee on Maritime Security, reportedly in order to make way for a #PRC #naval #base."

armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
Read 15 tweets
#Hypothesis: Agreement to disengage in Pangong lake was reached in Sept-oct, but #CCP11 backtracked in Oct/nov on expectation of Biden win! Blinken's 6th Feb call to Yang Xi confirmed firm US policy towards China. #Xi gave approval for implantation of Pangong agreement thereafter
2/hy #CCPPLA will not abandon its #Creeping #Acquisition policy on India-Tibet border till there is a border settlement, or we establish #Hard #Deterrence viz #PLA, or both! Indian Nat security apparatus is working on this premise; Post-Galwan,political estblishment is on board!
3/hy Dis-engaging tanks & Heavy armor, from battle field positions, is the first step!
Read 12 tweets
Do y’all see why Russia, Steve Bannon and Trump targeted Black people with their disinfo campaigns? Because we can swing elections. #Deterrence
Too many people still don't understand that Ben Carson was an op. #Deterrence

Read 6 tweets
#US #TriService #MARITIME #STRATEGY!

Focus on #China & #Russia = 2 most significant geopol threats to global peace & prosperity—

Clear stakes:

"China has implemented a strategy & revisionist approach that aims at the heart of the US’ #maritime power."

media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
"... our three #Sea Services have watched with alarm the growing #naval #power of the People’s Republic of #China & the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation.

Our globally deployed naval forces interact w/ #Chinese & #Russian #warships & #aircraft daily."
"We witness firsthand their increasing sophistication and growing aggressiveness. ... The People’s Republic of #China represents the most pressing, long-term strategic threat."

media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
Read 26 tweets
#Unrealism #NehruvianFP #CCP #IncrementalImperialism: Equality between Criminal & Victim is a Liberal Fantasy. Unless you call out criminal aggressors & their lies, they get a license for their #Geobblesian propaganda of calling every #defensive action of victim as aggression
2/ccp Chinese Communist Party(#CCP) is quite capable of taking what it wants from others(land, islands, seas, ports, telecom, technology, profits), issue is, 1) What can we get from them(eg land they took in May-June)? 2) What is best way to get it(eg alliance,def capital exp?)
3/ccp We are not content with the status quo" of, (1)Jehadi terror perpetrated by Pakistan agnst us since 1980, (2) Creeping acquisition of Indian territory on LAC by China, (3) Nuclearisation of Pakistan by China since 1970 & SinoPak alliance threatening us, (4) Ch in NSG, UNSC
Read 5 tweets
Prof Muni forgets😰, we have been trying to settle the border for decades (it's seen as sign of weakness to be exploited). A settlement of Western & Northern borders would automatically safeguard the CPEC. Chinese objectives is hegemony not settlement: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
2/ns #CCP #China will settle the border with India and order Pakistan to settle, once we achieve (credible, hard) #deterrence vis the #SinoPak alliance. In the mean time, it's building military counter force on northern border and helping Pakistan build its air & naval forces.
3/ns Is #EU waking up to the #SinoPak military alliance? (Hint: Pakistan has given full access to Chinese engineers to study western weapons systems owned by it, including the US cruise missile which crashed in AfPak area ~ decade ago)
Read 4 tweets
Our Defence and Foreign Policy experts listen too much to conventional economic wisdom (and regurgitate it). Actually: (1) Accelerated economic reforms & privatization allows govt to focus budget on public goods like defence, ....2/ m.rediff.com/amp/news/inter…
2/ec .., instead of wasting it on projects and programs that private sec can do more efficiently. (2) Given the power asymmetry, the only way to #Deter #CCP #China is by convincing them that we are willing to bear the military & economic costs of resisting #aggression...3/
3/ec Any costs we bear,while reducing imports of Goods & services from China, besides hurting China, also enhances the credibility of #Deterrence. (3) India is 5th largest economy & will be 3rd largest in ~ 10 yrs. It's self-delusion to think this market is unimportant to China..
Read 3 tweets
Capability to impose an Indian Ocean blockade on a nuclear armed enemy, has good #Deterrant value as the final conventional deterrent, below the nuclear threshold. The suggestions to shift the battle from Himalayas to the Indian Ocean are however, strategically ill considered
2/xxx Idea would be to #Deter China(by ability to cripple its oil imports & trade) from converting a hot border war into a full fledged war against Indian heartland(including by bringing a substantial part of its US-facing assets into Tibet+Xinjiang). #Deterrence=#NoWar in IO
3/xxx Sucessfull IO deterrence of kind indicated👆🏼, would mean fighting a cold war(not hot) in the littoral States and islands of Indian Ocean, which requires geoeconomics, geopolitics and diplomacy as much as, or more than, naval warfighting.
Read 4 tweets
Surely every serious national security strategist understands the distinction btwn Govts Geopolitical decisions and th military's detailed scenario planning & action program. A govt can decided on basis of expected value of outcome or worst case scenarios-the latter is paralyzing
2/ns The critical issue in China-India conflict is that,as of now (2020), #China controls the #escalatory ladder. So India's #National #Security Apparatus has to make assumptions about when and how #CCPpla will escalate, if it loses the first few steps on its escalatory ladder!
3/ns The worst case scenario for us is therefore the one in which after loosing previous escalations, #CCP China escalates to a full fledged war/attack on India, by shifting US-facing troops and highest quality equipment towards India. This has proved paralyzing for past Govts!🤔
Read 69 tweets
My short take on @EmmanuelMacron's speech on defence and #nuclear #deterrence #dissuasion:
The baseline of the doctrine is unchanged: defensive role of NW, targeted against states' centres of power; strict sufficiency; final warning to restore deterrence; and vital interests 1/7
On that point: Macron specifies what previous presidents had already alluded to: "Let's be clear: France's vital interests now have a European dimension". I.E effort at being more open about the European role of French deterrence, while still not participating in #NATO's NPG. 2/7
Deterrence is also a necessary component of his effort to build a European strategic culture. He thus proposes "a strategic dialogue, with those European partners that are ready, on the role of French nuclear deterrence for our collective security". 3/7
Read 7 tweets
🚨Pentagon defunds European projects that deter #Russia to fund Trump’s wall, authority DoD gained when Trump declared the border a national emergency - The Washington Post washingtonpost.com/world/national…
#Maddow says #Trump has moved to systemically dismantle each of the 4 pillars of USG response punishing #Russia for its invasion & annexation of #Crimea:
1) #Sanctions
2) Aid to #Ukraine
3) Ousting Russia from #G8
4) European #Deterrence Initiative
EDI was defunded for the Wall
🔥Garamendi on diverting military funds for a border wall: WHAT IN THE HELL IS GOING ON BETWEEN PUTIN & TRUMP?! Cutting projects critical to secure NATO's eastern border in Estonia, Poland & Ukraine gives Putin a lot of leeway, tells allies US is unwilling to stand up to Russia.
Read 3 tweets
#Appeasement👇🏽is easy & cheap in short run,but very costly in long run. Hard #Deterrence is most cost-effective #NationalSecurityPolicy. But it has to be credible in the eyes of aggressive enemy. Credibility is demonstrated by willingness to bear costs: lnkd.in/eGF4VsT
2/ There is >50 years of theory (starting with Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sc… )& empirical evidence relating to this👆🏽 Defence strategists & military experts, play these theories out in #WarGames, constrained & guided by the empirical evidence!
3/ In contrast, our public debates on foreign policy focus on (1) Logical consistence of every sentence & action of our own govt (not of our enemies), (2) On the morality of our foreign policy & national security actions viz those hostile to us. 🧐
Read 14 tweets

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