Thread by @UntergrundmannG

#Covid19India

This is what the Growth Rate of the Total Count for #Covid19India looks like when plotted against the Log Total Count.

The LOESS line (Red, dashed) declined below the linear fit (Blue, dotted) at 8.2 (~3.5K Cases) and rose back up strongly at 12 (~160K Cases).
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Set up a GAM model (in Red) to forecast when the ZERO crossing might be expected, alongside an extension of the LOESS fit (in Blue).

Expects a zero crossing slightly ahead of 15 (~ 3.25-3.5M Cases). That's when the model suggests Total Count would stop growing further.
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PS: The LOESS fit, however, suggests that this could rise back up around 14 in LogN terms (which is where the two "forecasts" diverge). 14 in LogN terms is around 1.2M cases. Which we expect to hit in around two weeks time.

#MaskUp! or #StayHome