There are many questions on the reasons of the escalation and who started the fire first on the #Armenian-#Azerbaijani border in #Tavush/#Tovuz regions yesterday. What is clear is that: 1/7
Both governments were ready for the escalation as the negotiations reached impasse since the last developments including the statements of Armenian PM in #Stepanakert (August 2019), inauguration of the leader of the self-proclaimed government of NK in #Shusha (May 2020),etc. 2/7
This is why the argument of distracting both societies from the unsuccessful struggle against the pandemic of #coronavirus has little ground: it was expected to start anyway. 3/7
Another important point is that while the escalation started on the Armenian-Azerbaijani international recognized border and not the Line of Contact with the neighboring occupied territories of Azerbaijan it looks more like a provocation from the Armenian side. 4/7
There is no logic for the Azerbaijani government to attack here as it might pose a threat on the involvement of Russia as the #CSTO backer of Armenian security. Instead attack in the direction of #LoC would have given more political and military dividends for official #Baku. 5/7
It also explains why the analogy with the Four-Day war of April 1916 is wrong. 6/7
Whatever this escalation will lead to, the reaction of the public shows that both Armenian and Azerbaijani societies are full of mistrust and skepticism about peaceful coexistence with each other. The road to peace is longer than ever before. 7/7
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1/13 Now when the war is over and the details of the peace deal are announced (although some of them are still unclear), it’s time to think about several outcomes for the global/regional powers and one main lesson for Azerbaijan and Armenia:
2/13 This peace deal once again proved the status of the South Caucasus as Russia’s backyard for its role in achieving ceasefire and the newly established status of the peacekeeping force in NK. At least for the next 5 years Russia will retain its strong presence in the region.
3/13 Turkey gained a new status in the region by getting direct connection to Az through Nakhchivan corridor, joining the peacebuilding process as a part of Monitoring Center and possibly opening borders with Armenia. Its absolute popularity in Azerbaijan will remain uncontested.
Is compromise between #Azerbaijan and #Armenia possible? Very unlikely and the reason lies (partially, or mostly) in societies, not leaders. A (very) long thread:
While Armenian side is blaming current Azerbaijani regime for refusing to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence, it fails to understand the Azerbaijani vision of the history of NK conflict and the significance of Karabakh to the Azerbaijani people. +
For the Azerbaijanis Karabakh is an important element of identity which was formed long before Aliyev. The former capital of Karabakh, Shusha is considered as the "St. Petersburg of Azerbaijan" for being a homeland to dozens of Az composers, artists, poets and intellectuals. +
I would recommend everyone to read Mansfield and Snyder’s “Democratization and the danger of war” article (1995) on the role of democratizing (and not yet fully democratic) states in the onset of conflicts. These are the cases where democratic peace theory cannot be applied: 1/
According to the authors, states with the regimes in transition (both democratizing or “autocratizing”) are more prone to lead their nations to wars that either fully democratic or fully authoritarian regimes. 2/
It is caused either by the domestic struggle between political elites and/or efforts of state leaders to gain more public support and strengthen their power. 3/
This is tragic to see a-180-degree change in the Arm-Az negotiations from the January 2019 promise of “preparing populations to peace” to the recent July escalations and today’s onset of what looks like a full-scale war. #KarabakhNow 1/4
Lots of provocations starting from Pashinyan’s Stepanakert speech of August 2019 to the resettlement of Lebanese Armenians to #Karabakh, a provocative idea of moving local parliament to #Shusha and many others ignited the Azerbaijani side for the recent months. 2/4
These steps together with the rising military rhetoric on both sides, lack of communication between societies and little involvement of the international community brought us to what we have today. 3/4
Here is a good documentary about national minorities of Azerbaijan (unfortunately now available with Az subtitles only) to give you some idea on how the diverse ethnic palette of the South Caucasus looks like: 1/
In this documentary you can listen to the languages and stories of Tats, Budugs, Sakhurs,Talyshs, Khynalygs/Ketishs, Russians, Hapitlis, Jews, Rutuls, Eliks, Kurds, Udis, Lezgins, Ingiloys, Armenians, Avars and Kryzs. 2/
These 17 nationalities is only a group of ethnicities inhabiting different regions of Azerbaijan. Many other minorities of Baku, including Tatars, Poles, Ukrainians and others were not mentioned here. 3/
Armenian and Azerbaijani musicians of Mashadi Jamil Amirov ensemble, 1909. From left to right: Shoshan (?) (gosha-naghara), Mashadi Mahammad Farzaliyev (singer khanende), Mashadi Jamil Amirov (tar), Levon Karakhanov (kamancha). 1/
Born in Shusha, Mashadi Jamil Amirov was a well-known composer and tarist of his time. Author of “Seyfal Mulk” opera, he is also the father of another great Az composer, Fikret Amirov. Karabakh indeed was the conservatoire of the South Caucasus and the cradle of Az culture. 2/
In one of his letters Russian poet Sergey Yesenin wrote about Shusha's residents love for singing: "If you're not a poet, then you're not from Shiraz, if you're not a singer - you're not from Shusha." 3/