#NationalSecurity Wrong man was chosen for role of #founder#CDS. Q is whether it was appropriate to raise NSA position to full Cabinet rank & thus reduce NSA's access to contrariarian professional opinion from within/outside Govt. Diverse opinions is only solution to uncertainty
2/ns The qualifications for a founder CDS included, (1) knowledge of all dimensions of war; land, air, sea, (2) Capability in Strategic thinking & methodology, (3) Familiarity with, & ability to understand, frontier technologies(eg hypersonic, lasers), (4) Geopolitical interest
3/ns There is a big diff btwn single-point advice and single-uniform advice. A National security advisor must present alternative views & options, before giving his own advise on which he thinks is best option. If all he receives are views similar to his own, diversity is lost!
4/ns #Paradoxically a good #NSA must simultaneously be V open minded & have clear view on issues of relevance to National security. Th best way to do this is to have own mental model of national security but be open to contrary facts/views & adjust/change it when new facts emerge
5/ns #Net#Assesment has taught us to pay attention to low probability high impact events, which human beings generally ignore in everyday life & work. These are generally thrown-up by contrarians, who may be wrong 90% of the time, but the 10% could be a life or death event!
6/ns General Brent Snowcraft, former US NSA apparently met these criteria (abcnews.go.com/Politics/brent… ). Only History can judge which of our NSAs met this criteria best?
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One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo#Saxon#World and among its subalterns. #Information#War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
2/nss Sweet spot for PLA aggression: #Elections in raucous democracies. => Lesson: Armed forces in threatened countries, should have more operational autonomy during election period.
2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
#Emedicine, #Telemedicine can/will revolutionise (high quality) #health delivery not only in #India’s rural and remote areas, but also in rural areas of much richer countries!
2/ncrh Remember these are the same folks whose neo-colonial progeny, preach us "principles" to support their selfish interests, and to "shame" us into working against our own national interest
3/ncrh The response must be rational, not emotional. Learn about India's (own) National interest, and the national interests of the major powers (Hint: USSR & PRC were colonial) to understand how "principles" are used & misused!
As I have said in many talks, and as the author @pujamehra wrote, the period 2004-13, was a, “lost decade” in terms of economic policy reform, not in terms of GDP growth rate. The latter was due to the lagged effects of 1991-2003 reforms.
The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy#reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India#Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today