Thread by @OldNorthStPol

1/

Today's (8-13) report on NC's requests for absentee by mail (ABM) ballots:

Total requests among reporting 97 (out of 100) counties: 195,248

Up 12,122 from yesterday

This same day in 2016's requests: 24,535

2020 is now 8X ahead of 2016's #s for same day

#ncpol #ncvotes

2/

2020 weekly numbers generated in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots.

We're well into week 33 (week 1 = Jan 1, 2020) of receiving requests from NC voters for an absentee by mail ballot.

This week, nearly 20K requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.

#ncpol #ncvotes

3/

2020 vs. 2016 same week by week cumulative totals of NC absentee by mail ballot requests

2020 met 2016's totals in mid-May and has far-exceeded since

Again, NC is 8X ahead of same day #s in 2016

As of 8/13: 2020 #s = 84% of 2016 total requests of 231K

#ncpol #ncvotes

4/

Party registrations for same day ABM request totals in 2016 vs. 2020.

In 2016:
registered Democrats: 9,169 (37%)
reg Unaffiliated: 6,513 (27%)
reg Republicans: 8,770 (36%)

8/13/20:
reg Dems: 95,853 (49%)
reg Unaff: 62,875 (32%)
reg Rep: 34,920 (18%)

#ncpol #ncvotes

5/

All NC parties are up over this same time in 2016, but some are up "substantially more" than others.

Among registered Republicans: 4X ahead of their same 2016 totals as of today

Among reg Unaffiliated: 9.7X ahead

Among reg Democrats: 10X ahead

#ncpol #ncvotes

6/

Weekly totals by party reg of 2020 NC requests for ABM ballots, starting mid-April:

So far this week, #s of requests processed:

GOP = 1,803
Unaff = 4,887
Dem = 12,919

#ncpol #ncvotes

7/

The cumulative weekly totals since Jan 1 of NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, broken down by party registration.

NC Republican Party has sent out another mailer (see this tweet for photo of the mailer with request form:

https://twitter.com/JustinforJoCo/status/1293664272812310528

)

#ncpol #ncvotes

8/

Party registration %s of cumulative totals each week since Jan 1 for NC requests for absentee by mail ballots:

Middle of April (Week 14) began spread b/w reg Dems & GOP, with Unaffiliateds holding steady in their %s.

Now % curves turning up for Dem, down for GOP

#ncpol

9/

Top 10 NC counties are now under 2/3 of all requests for absentee by mail ballots.

Top 2--Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte)--account for little under 1/3 of the requests so far.

Here are top 15 NC counties:

#ncpol #ncvotes

10/

NC now has 27 counties above/at state's percentage of 84% of total 2016 requests so far.

13 counties already *exceed* their county 2016 total requests

#ncpol #ncvotes

11/

Model of different "times factor" of 2016 same-day totals to see where things may end up come 9/4 when first NC ABM ballots will be sent out by counties.

Currently, 2020 #s have moved to 8X model, for potential 320K+ mailed out on 9/4:

#ncpol #ncvotes

12/

Important reminder: these #s are only for 97 out of 100 NC counties reporting. Many counties are catching up on processing requests, while some are slow to report.

So: these may be 'low estimates' of *actual* #s out there for requests for NC ABM ballots.

#ncpol #ncvotes

13/13

For those interested, the @NCSBE data file for all of these numbers is located at: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre…

Important: *add* the numbers in the final column, per the various breakdowns, to calculate the numbers.

It is *NOT* a 'line-entry' report.

#ncpol #ncvotes