Thread by @oldnorthstpol

Today's #NC09 early voting (accepted absentee in-person/one-stop & mail-in) thread for 9/10 general election (data at dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre…):

As of 9-3: 46,351 absentee ballots have been accepted.

A reminder: Labor Day saw several counties without voting.

#ncpol #ncvotes

Among #NC09's 8 counties, Mecklenburg (40%) & Union (32%) continue to lead in early votes. Voter party registration %s within each of the #NC09 eight counties and district-wide for accepted absentee (in-person & mail-in) ballots so far:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Comparing #NC09 2018’s early votes (accepted absentee one-stop/in-person & mail-in) daily cumulative totals to 2019 #s so far.

Due to Labor Day & several counties closed, the district's early voting is 47% of where it was on the same day of early voting in 2018. #ncpol #ncvotes

Comparison between 2018 early voting in #NC09 and 2019 (so far) of cumulative daily totals by voter party registration.

Registered Democrats continue a wider lead in 2019 than they did in 2018 (caveats notwithstanding, of course):

#ncpol #ncvotes

Comparison between 2018 early voting in #NC09 and 2019 (so far) of cumulative daily totals by each of the eight counties within the district.

Mecklenburg continues its slightly larger edge so far in 2019 over Union, compared to their 2018 performances.

#ncpol #ncvotes

For the 2 largest counties within #NC09:

First, comparison between 2018 early voting in #NC09 and 2019 (so far) within Mecklenburg County only, by voter party registration for cumulative daily totals of accepted absentee ballots (in-person & mail-in).

#ncpol #ncvotes

Comparison between 2018 early voting in #NC09 and 2019 (so far) within Union County only, by voter party registration for cumulative daily totals of accepted absentee ballots (in-person & mail-in):

#ncpol #ncvotes

Comparing 2018 early voting in #NC09 to 2019 (so far) for the past week in both Mecklenburg & Union counties, by voter party registration %s for cumulative daily totals of accepted absentee ballots (in-person & mail-in):

#ncpol #ncvotes

Will need to update to Saturday's voter registration data, but #NC09 district's voter registration data, as of 8-24, shows the district's party registration of:

Reg Dems: 36%
Reg Unaffiliated: 32%
Reg Reps: 31%

Now, remember a key point to remember about #NC09:

#ncpol #ncvotes

#NC09 district has several rural counties, outside of urban Mecklenburg & Cumberland and suburban Union counties, with likely 'legacy' older, white, conservative Southern Democrats.

These registered white Democrats may be likely Republican voters.

#ncpol #ncvotes

With that caveat (& just curious), I looked at the 'turnout rates' so far by district, county, and county party registration for early voting (accepted absentee ballots, both in-person & mail-in) for #NC09 using the 8-24 registration data & 9-3 ballots cast so far:

#ncpol

Few more data points on #NC09 early voting (ie, accepted absentee in-person & mail-in ballots), this time for what potentially could be 3 key counties, by voter race & party registration & the overall turnout rates so far (ballots cast/registration #s for that group) #ncpol

First, Mecklenburg County's #NC09 portion (home to Charlotte), which has voter registration of:

82% White
8% Black/African-American
11% All other races.

The voter turnout so far, by voter race & party registration, along with the actual #s for Mecklenburg:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Next, Union County (suburban county right next to Mecklenburg), which has voter registration of:

76% White
12% Black/African-American
11% All other races.

The voter turnout so far, by voter race & party registration, with actual #s for Union:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Finally, Robeson County (rural county), which has voter registration of:

29% White
28% Black/African-American
43% American-Indian/all other races.

The voter turnout so far, by voter race & party registration:

#ncpol #ncvotes

#NC09 early voting ends this Friday, Sept. 6.

If you've made it this far in the thread & would like to know what I am looking for in the 9/10 general election for, please see this blog piece: oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2019/08/previe…

Thanks for reading and sharing. #ncpol #ncvotes