Thread by @oldnorthstpol

Today's (10-31) Data Thread: NC's 2018 'early votes' are setting new #s in terms of absentee by mail & one-stop/in-person for a mid-term:

Over 1.4M requests have been made & returned & accepted (accepted mail not yet past 2014 total #s, but in-person has)

#ncpol #ncvotes

2018's absentee by mail ballots have slowed somewhat, & thus the #s have not yet reached 2014's #s.

But in absentee onestop/in-person ballots, NC has exceed 2014's #s for both requested & accepted.

Reminder: 2014 had 10 days of early voting & 2018 has 18 days.

#ncpol #ncvotes

Here are NC's 2018 requested NC absentee ballots for both mail and in-person methods, by daily totals and daily cumulative totals.

Tuesday saw 130K in-person early voters request ballots as we start final few days of NC's early voting period (ends Saturday)

#ncpol #ncvotes

And here are NC's 2018 returned & accepted NC absentee ballots for both mail and in-person methods, by daily totals and daily cumulative totals.

#ncpol #ncvotes

In terms of the daily numbers for both NC 2018 requested and accepted ballots, by vote method (either by mail or onestop/in-person):

#ncpol #ncvotes

The cumulative totals for 2018's NC accepted absentee in-person ballots (the bulk of early votes), compared against 2010's mid-term #s, 2014's mid-term #s, and 2016's presidential #s, show a trend likely between 2014 and 2016, with another 4 days to go.

#ncpol #ncvotes

For comparison to the past elections via voter party registration, all three major party registrations are ahead of 2010 & 2014 same day #s, but down against 2016 #s:

reg Dems lead, but down 32% vs. 2016 same day #s
reg Reps down 32%
reg Unaffiliated down 27%

#ncpol #ncvotes

So far, registered Dems continue their 43% of accepted absentee one-stop/in-person ballots, ahead of their 10-27-18 registered voter pool of 38%

Reg Reps at 30% of in-person, at their 30% of voter pool

Reg Unaffiliateds at 27%, compared to 31% of voter pool

#ncpol #ncvotes

And voter party registration of NC's accepted absentee in-person (early) voters, by daily #s and %s:

"Souls to the Polls" are evident in the Dem "spikes" on both Sunday's party %s, but beginning to return to same trends in party %s so far this week

#ncpol #ncvotes

Comparing cumulative requested ballot voter party registration turnout to the #s of voters registered by party as of 10-27-18, NC state-wide turnout now at 20% already by early voting.

Reg Dems near 23%
Reg Reps at 20%
Reg Unaffiliateds at 17% (not surprising)

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC has a 'blue moon' cycle (no major US Senate or governor's race), so focus is on 13 US House districts:

In-person early votes by CD by party registration #s & %s

#NC13 (R+3 to Ds), #NC11 (R+1), & #NC10 (R+1) have reg GOP leads, but #NC02 (D+10) & #NC09 (D+4)

#ncpol #ncvotes

Looking at NC's 2018 in-person early voting by age & generational cohorts (defined pewresearch.org/topics/millenn…), average voter is 57 YO (been dropping past few days)

Boomers + still dominate, compared to voter reg pool %s, but slight uptick of younger voters to 14%

#ncpol #nvotes

These show 'early vote' electorate (by days) by generational cohorts in accepted absentee ballots:

Here is 2014 & 2016 early voting periods for daily %s of generations for voters casting early ballots

Notice younger voters surged in 2016 late, but not in 2014

#ncpol #ncvote

Here's 2018's early ballots by generation cohort so far:

Younger voters showed up this year on weekends, but week days still dominated by older voters. Will be interesting to track through remainder of this week & Saturday to see if there's a youth surge late:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Continuing the demographics: the gender of NC accepted absentee in-person ballots as of 10-31-18:

NC women still dominate early voting (54%, up 1 to their registered voter pool %); registered Dems leading among female voters (has been trend for some time)

#ncpol #ncvotes

Next, by NC 'region': urban central city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; & rural county voter.

The %s of requested absentee voters so far & voter party registration within each region:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Now, combining gender with region of NC's accepted absentee in-person votes, by both women & men within a region and voter party registration within each group:

Plurality of female votes from urban city voters, but both sexes have over 50% from suburban voters

#ncpol #ncvotes

By voter race and voter party registration of NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots, as of 10-31:

Whites are overperforming (73%) against their voter registration pool % (of 68)

Black voters are about same percentage (21%) as voter reg pool % (22)

#ncpol #ncvotes

Daily trends of NC's early votes (accepted absentee in-person) by voter race, both in #s and in %:

Sundays saw healthy uptick in black voters coming out; likely "Souls to the Pools" push by black churches in NC.

#ncpol #ncvotes

This has become something to watch: how 2018's NC early voters voted in last mid-term (2014) or not:

42% of 2018 EV so far voted same method in 2014
25% of 2018 EV voted on 2014's Election Day
17% of 2018 EV registered after 2015
14% of 2018 EV registered in 2014 but didn't vote

2014 EV voters % of 2018 EV has been dropping, while 2014 Election Day voters has been increasing, along with registered 2014 "non-voters" deciding to vote.

The voter party registration (by #s and %s) of NC 2018 early voters and their 2014 vote methods or not:

#ncpol #ncvotes

And probably most importantly for some, 2014 vote methods of current 2018 NC early votes *within* voter party registration:

So far, 28% of reg Republicans who have voted early in 2018 voted on Election Day in 2014

24% of both reg Dems & Unaffiliateds did same

#ncpol #ncvotes

Along with 2018 NC early voters data, I merged each voters' 'history' of casting ballots in NC 2008-16 general elections & created 'high propensity' voters (who cast ballots in all 2008-2016 elections) & 'presidential' voters (only voted in 08-16 prez but not in 10-14 mid-terms)

First, high propensity voters & presidential voters (both numbers & %s within voter party registration) for requested 2018 NC early ballots:

54% of state-wide NC requested ballots are voters who are either high propensity or presidential but not mid-term voters

#ncpol #ncvotes

Next, high propensity voters & presidential voters (both numbers & %s within voter party registration) for accepted 2018 NC early ballots:

54% of state-wide NC accepted ballots are voters who are either high propensity or presidential but not mid-term voters

#ncpol #ncvotes

Finally, I looked at the 2008-2016 'voter method' by voter party registration. In NC, most presidential year votes come before Election Day, while in mid-terms, most come on Election Day.

Here's 2008-2014 charts of 3 major vote methods & party reg:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Now, here's the 2016 presidential year and 2018 (as of 10-31) in terms of voters who used absentee by mail, absentee one-stop/in-person, and Election Day voting.

Notice considerable difference from past years in NC absentee by mail by voter party registration:

#ncpol #ncvotes

As a reminder (& for those with sufficient computing power), all data for NC early voters come from @NCSBE website: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre… (use the first file)

And for 10-27-18 Voter Registration data: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre… (use "ncvoter_Statewide.zip file)

#ncpol #ncvotes