Thread by @OldNorthStPol

1/

Aug. 20 NC update of requests for absentee by mail ballots.

Total among the reporting 98 (out of 100) counties: 313,224

Since yesterday's report: +17,265

Same day for 2016's requests: 27,955

2020 is now 11X ahead of 2016's #s for same day

#ncpol #ncvotes

2/

2020 weekly numbers generated in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots.

We're into Week 34 (week 1 = Jan 1) of receiving requests from NC voters: so far, 21K requests.

Last week (33) saw 105K requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.

#ncpol #ncvotes

3/

2020 vs. 2016 same week by week cumulative totals of NC absentee by mail ballot requests

IMPORTANT NOTE: 2020 requests so far (313K) have *exceed* all of 2016's requests (231,782)

#ncpol #ncvotes

4/

To demonstrate the exponential growth in NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, this chart "models" what we might expect.

Dotted lines = 'model' lines based on times/factor of 2016's same week #s, estimating what could be sent out on 9/4, 1st day of mailing ABMs

#ncpol

5/

Currently, NC requests are running 11 times ahead of this same point in 2016, with significant uptick in past few weeks.

IF this trend line holds at 10X to 12X model, NC could mail out between 400K & potentially 500K absentee by mail ballots on the 1st day

#ncpol #ncvotes

6/

Party registrations for same day ABM request totals in 2016 vs. 2020

Same Day 2016:
registered Democrats: 10,357 (37%)
reg Unaffiliated: 7,526 (27%)
reg Republicans: 10,023 (36%)

8/20:
reg Dems: 166,697 (53%)
reg Unaff: 98,384 (31%)
reg Rep: 47,238 (15%)

#ncpol #ncvotes

7/

All NC parties are up over this same time in 2016, but some are up "substantially more" than others.

State: 11.2X ahead of same 2016 totals as of today

Among reg Republicans: 4.7X ahead

Among reg Unaffiliated: 13X ahead

Among reg Democrats: 16X ahead

#ncpol #ncvotes

8/

Weekly totals by party reg of 2020 NC requests for ABM ballots, starting mid-April:

So far, this week (34) #s of requests processed:

GOP = 3,821
Unaff = 6,498
Dem = 11,583

#ncpol #ncvotes

Cumulative weekly totals since Jan 1 of NC requests for absentee by mail ballots, broken down by party registration.

NC GOP Party sent out second mailer this past week with 2 absentee by mail ballot requests forms in it, likely to both GOP & Unaffiliated voters

#ncpol #ncvotes

10/

Party registration %s of cumulative totals each week since Jan 1 for NC requests for absentee by mail ballots:

Middle of April (Week 14) began spread b/w reg Dems & GOP, with Unaff holding steady in their %s.

Spread b/w Dems & GOP holding; Unaff slightly down

#ncpol

11/

Still awaiting 2 counties (Perquimans & Tyrrell) to report; several counties are 'catching up' on processing their requests.

So, again, these #s could be 'low estimates' of what is actually out there in terms of requests for NC absentee by mail ballots.

#ncpol #ncvotes

12/

Top 15 NC counties with their requests for absentee by mail ballots.

Wake County (Raleigh) has taken a significant lead in requests, following by Mecklenburg (Charlotte). The two counties = over 1/3 of all the state's requests.

#ncpol #ncvotes

13/

Chatham County has tripled its 2016 requested ballots.

Orange, Durham, New Hanover, and Haywood have doubled their 2016 numbers.

In total, 27 out of 100 counties are above state % of 2016 ballots of 135%.

#ncpol #ncvotes

14/

For those interested in the 'raw data,' the @NCSBE data file is found here: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre…

Important note: *add* the numbers in the final column, per the various breakdowns, to calculate numbers by the various 'groups' as noted.

#ncpol #ncvotes

15/15

Two weeks from tomorrow, on Friday, September 4, the first batch of absentee by mail ballots will be sent out from the counties.

Pending Labor Day & postal office delivery, first batch of returned & accepted ballots could come around Sept. 9-11.

#ncpol #ncvotes